Not sure how it will play out with all those fires and bad market conditions but sometimes those things have a way to work it out
BEI
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Note: i am only buying because supports on higher time frames and fibo levels, daily this is breaking trending channels and dropping fast so it is very dangerous to catch it from that point of view
BEI
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Silver linings
Vincenz
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I think it's worth mentioning that the earnings come out on Nov 5, so all bets are off when that happens. I'm thinking it may plunge based on anything said that can be construed to be negative.
BEI
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Yes, indeed. I forgot to mention that.
My timing tools technique are suggesting the bounce will occur between the 15 and 20 of November, so 2 to 3 weeks after earnings. I respect any views underlining the effect of the announcement but from my point of view i find a lot of times prices coincidentally realizing the technical pattern at the time of the earnings, up or down since there is always two sides of the trade.
I am going to explain myself. Let's say per example prices react negatively to the announcement but are still over the dead zone and reacting strongly to either supports 1 or 2 and i find a a good intraday entry i will open a long trade, even if my timing tool tells me to wait. If in scenario number two the announcement is positive and prices shoot up, i will not follow the trade until i will find a good entry point, but i will certainly be cautious and even scalping the trades since i will be avoiding any kind of whipsaw or pullback after this eventual gap up.
But to tell you the truth, i think prices will pop to 171 -174, come back to 149-151 and then start second long bull wave, that is only if prices don't get to touch the 149 dollars zone area but they look to bounce from 152 it this week. This is pure speculation, prices can do complete opposite and even open at 130 or 220. I guess what i am trying to say is that there is only suppositions and i am picking the long side of the trade and will improvise consequently. The important thing to keep in mind from a technical point of view is that support 1 and 2 are very important, they will be acting like a pivot point if you will and where prices will be after the announcement from this zone is equally important. Thank you for the heads up and happy trading
AlexandreFF
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Hello BEI, i dont know if you know it but Tesla has a major problem outside the US, other countries dont have enough eletric power stations, this would enable them to sell cars out there i would wait to see more improvements on this side to decide if the stock is a buy. I think the stock got too much atention for a company that is still in its first steps.
BEI
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Hi Alexandre,
First of all i do agree on "the stocks gets too much attention part", i could have seen 80 maybe 120 but 190 holy spaghettis! But that is why i was an still am only trading price action here, no fundamental analysis whatsoever. So the best way to describe this would be to strike the iron while it's hot.
I am taking note of your other countries challenge remark, do you have any link on the info? would you mind to share?
I am actually from Europe and do believe there is a good selling potential. And the only reason why i don't study the figures and search for reports or "etudes de marche" is because by the time every challenge will be overcome the stock will already be at the highs and it will be time to sell it...i appreciate your comment, good luck and happy trading!
AlexandreFF
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I also played a bit with the stock but i am afraid investors got too much excited for a company that still has a lot to do which is build a complete new system of power stations inside and outside the us. To make it completely the eco car leader. If i buy a tesla car i expect to power it up in mexico, Miami, and in the middle of the forest in Canada. If you go to the Tesla website you can see their power stations. I actually saw a Motley Fool article last month talking about this Tesla problem but i couldnt find it im sorry. Tesla has potential but 350% return YTD is too much for a company that hasnt shown enough results. It will still go low i think because of this revenue problems, they will still need to develop the brand inside the US before going outside.
BEI
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The revenue problem you mentioned is one the biggest challenge, as you must know Tesla is profitable thanks to politics and tax subsidies, i agree.
But i always like to see a company in terms of the corporate strategy, the potential it has on the market. On this matter, Tesla has only one, yet quite optimized business plan : 1- Enter at the high end of the market 2-Drive down market as fast as possible with higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model. Basically: Best quality for an exclusive clientele expanding to the broader market. The day they will lower prices of 10% they will have a 30% increase of sales (just an example for explanation purposes, no real numbers here), does not have to be in the same cars though.
This is why i have been watching and trading Tesla since a while now and also why Elon Musk is pushing and investing like crazy to expand in Europe, He knows the sales will profit from this expansion thus making fast higher volumes, profits, innovation and ability to lower prices will follow. Although battery efficiency, competition and other operating obstacles, as in any business, can bring some difficulties on the way. I am not trying to convince anybody i just feel and technically see on the chart this has some way to go, regardless of 350% and i won't be missing it, although i am on the markets everyday so i can follow my position easier.