- James Canton
While Tesla has made seemingly absurd gains (nearly +500% on the year) during a very tough time for the market, it harkens to the James Canton quote above. Many investors are VERY VERY long on Tesla , because of the fact it is emergent technology. That said, its rapid ascent over the last two-weeks could still be something of a pre-emptive pump fake by the popular NASDAQ tech stock.
Elon Musk has carefully cornered many key patents on lithium-ion battery technology, and THAT is the bet here. The cars are merely the vehicle (no pun intended) for the innovation. With robotics and other industries reliant on these batteries of the future, the bet is that Musk's patent work plays a major role: As to how much this drives $TSLA itself, it's tougher still to guess.
This is very early on in a transition of global energy that is inevitable, but still tough to frame in terms of a transition. Michio Kaku , a respected and prescient scientist, seems to put the fruition of battery-driven tech to be sometime around the 2030 point. An equilibrium point (When Oil and N.E. reach equal viability) is tougher still to guess.
The reality is, this technology is the wave of the future. The matter is whether that wave is cresting pre-emptively, due to anticipation and a HYPE EFFECT, driving further investment into Musk's company. There is the notion that those who entered mid-March can now cash out over 300% ROI , and many will. As to whether this is a great exit point, or merely some sort of stopping point (before another major bull run), is really tough to say. I realize this update has been laced with uncertainties, but the certainty that does exist is that OIL WILL DIE - eventually, and it will not be from exhausting its drilling.
The progress Kaku spoke of, in transitioning from a "PHASE ZERO" planet (one reliant on fossil fuels) to a PHASE 1 (which might take till 2100; the point when we rely only on the sun/natural sources) is bound to occur. It just seems many investors are reacting to the change far before it occurs---which, is, generally the mode an investor wants to be.
This stock is just befuddling, not because it won't be great, but because it seemingly is already greater than the market dictates it already should be. We watch in careful anticipation. This is no endorsement of a SHORT, though it is also not to say there might not be a pullback that one could benefit from. That isn't being counted out.
HAPPY INVESTING! Happy trading! Happy Whatever!