The Case for a Massive Short Squeeze. GLOBAL MACRO SHORT PLAY
The Case for a Massive Short Squeeze. THE GLOBAL MACRO SHORT PLAY
Published on November 24, 2022
I will let you be the judge. What has been happening until this time.
This paper intends to make you aware of what is happening and of this massive opportunity. Why? because we are a collective and we should collectively help each other, and gain much more perspective. It is called evolution.
This papers is formed as follows, it starts with the preamble and the conditions that lead to this point, high inflation, your portfolio on the floor.
Then the short percentages are outlined.
The commentary about future growth.
Then Charts that show you the fractals.
Lastly a solution for the future.
PRINTED TODAY 11.21.2022
1st. Bottlenecks at California ports, Nancy Pelosi's kingdom. This Excel has the latest short interest percentages for multiple global ETFs. This information should give you a clear idea how indiscriminate this swindle has been. It started the day JB went into the WH.. And decided arbitrarily in my opinion to make it difficult to refine fuels. The next incident had to do with the supply chain, namely bottlenecks at California ports. Initially ships were returning empty, with out containers. Then logically, a container shortage ensued. As if this was not enough, local rules at these ports dictated initially that a maximum of two container would be stuck up and that again created yet another bottleneck. Lastly this same rule makers, blocked old trucks from entering the port alleging added pollution from old truckers, and forced these to load in new trucks and unload to older trucks waiting outside ports to ferry cargo to the intended destinations.You can investigate this information further on your own, there is plenty of information.
2nd. Concurrently oil demand went through the roof fueled by the threats made by Joe Biden, sending users to buy oil futures. A futures contract is made for 1,000 barrels of oil, and the seller of the contract then stores the physical commodity for future delivery, in mass storage, and also in oil tankers. The net result is a shortage of oil and consequently an increase in the commodity price. So, what happened and how come oil is now coming down, you ask? Well the answer is simple and very similar to what happened in 2008, oil prices shoot through the roof, and whan that happens, transport costs go up, and immediately these costs show up in higher prices, thus inflation. So then, why are oil prices coming down? Well after reviewing shipping statistics, form data available from many shipping tracking systems, it was visible that some 48,000 oil tanker were at sea, each with an average capacity of 500,000 barrels. The computation then became super easy, multiply the tankers at sea by 500,000 parrels and the result was 24 Billion Barrels of oil. For reference consumption in the USA for an entire year is 2.4 Billion Barrels, this means there is at least 10 x the annual demand of oil out of the ground.
3rd. Refining capacity in the USA, again Mr. Biden restricts their capacity and shuts down the construction of a super important asset, the Keystone Xl Pipeline from Canada. Obviously affecting gasoline supply and maintaining gasoline at a higher price that what it should be. I am not even addressing natural gas, here. as that is yet another commodity that is even more vulnerable. But the overall result is without question global inflation.
and 4th. Chips restrictions to China, this in my opinion, affected Apple and you saw the price decline, not only for Apple, but Amazon, Google, the S&P, Nasdaq and IWM the Russell 2000, and everything in between.
Shall I add the conflict with Russia, the poor relations we have with China, and the favoritism shown to Iran, and animosity to Saudi Arabia and Israel?
Now, there is another piece of information that should also infuriate you. Did you know that almost all global ETFs have been shorted at the tune of some $14 Trillion UDS? Check the list, printed just recently.
Now is the interesting side of all this story. What is shorting? Yes, I realize this concept may not be clear to everyone. So here is a nice definition from Investopedia.com
Shorting is a strategy used when an investor anticipates that the price of a security will fall in the short term. In common practice, short sellers borrow shares of stock from an investment bank or other financial institution, paying a fee to borrow the shares while the short position is in place.
Caveat: The shares sold don't belong to the shorts, these are your own shares, that brokers lend out to speculators for a fee. It is frankly ridiculous, don't you agree, that someone can come out of the woodwork and just sell your own shares without you even noticing it. Some people like the infamous Jim Chanos specialize in shorting companies, and Jimmy was a backer of the political campaign of our esteemed Mr. Biden no less. Go ahead and as the famous investor, Mark Cuban, what he thinks of Jimmy. Jimmy has also been doing the rounds at the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) touting the virtues of his activities, and guess what Mr. Joe has appointed many of the government positions inside the SEC.
Well, you see, it is not easy to form a very bad opinion of the happenings that have taken place since Mr. Joe took office.
There are many reasons why I believe these policies have all been misconstrued. I will enumerate my views, at then end of this paper, so don't get frustrated, this is not a dead end essay, all complaints and not solution. I will formulate the strategy to get even, and recuperate loses faster, and if we are well organized, we will take our money back from our infamous friend Jimmy and people lihim him.
I am done with the pointing fingers section, and now we enter into the sections that has the strategy, factual information, and solutions.
The Strategy:
Learn what a short squeeze is:
Very simple, the short that sold the shares he did not own, that belong to you, borrowed them from your broker. That seller, has a short position, his portfolio reads with a (-) negative sign for the shares he is short. This means he has to pay them back, no matter what, and pay interest every day on the shares he owes. The interest rates for margin these days is 7.9% and more for risky instruments.
How to evaluate the potential for a short squeeze?
Look at the Percentage of Short interest, it should not exceed .03% on any instrument and for country indexes it should be .02% max for large country indexes, and 0% for small country indexes (why 0% for the smallest, because the components is to small, thus valuing at the single component level).
Realization of the DATA, knowledge is king, so when you learn the numbers, it is super easy to make the call (I have added the number of short percentages for global ETFs, make sure you riview that data. It is fresh data...).
Estimate the future: Will we go back to the cro-magnon era. Or with 8 Billion consumers worldwide (we are now 8 Billion People), and with Starlink now able to connect the 60% of the population (3.875 Billion People) that was previously without internet, less than a year go, now able to become part of the digital economy, and will fuels the growth our our public companies for this century and the next. That is the question, to me, it looks like we are entering in the most prosperous century to date. Every century has seen more and more growth. Therefore the cro-magnon theory is as dumb as a bag with hammers.
How, what happens during a short squeeze. Buyer start buying, shorts start covering, the volume, increases, others see the volume and say to themselves short squeeze, they buy, the shorts panic, and but to cover, more see the shorts covering, more buy, the process repeats itself, and the stock price doubles and sometimes triple. Prices have retreated 50% on average. That means 50% are shorts, few sold. Therefore it has to return to the mean, but as we have just stated, global growth will be spectacular, and therefore the intrinsic value for all these companies is much much higher. Intrinsic value means thinking of your company shares as a bond, when it grows to x how much will it be worth. The formula is simple ((Sales * Net Revenue)*25)) / (shares) number of shares . There is no question that 3.875 Billion more consumers means growth.
Where can I find information on stocks with high short interest?
Here you are, the list of Global ETFs shorted in this Macro Play.
IWM is the Russell 2000 Etf. shorted 32% < this percentage is an aberration, a plain bazooka attack. Any reputable risk manager would fire you for shorting ETFs to this leve, because this is not investing, it is market manipulation. And who do we know is a specialist in Global Macro? Someone dear and close to politics that loves to finances radical district attorneys. Anyhow, returning to topic, nothing like this can every be done without help from policy makers. It would be to risky. But now that you know, and now that the American Government has return to a bipartisan power structure, rest assured, these games are over.
Lastly, you can't fix inflation with interest rates. With rates is the same as using a bazooka, the solution is a different one, it is called, REFLATIONARY POLICIES.
More on this at the end. What I have tried to do here is to show you, that the future is bright, that the market is way way oversold, that equities are super cheap, and that the markets for all tech and industry in general has expanded to more than double in size, thus, valuations are a steal now, and we have a mountain of sneaky shorts to squeeze.
No alt text provided for this image
List of Country ETFs shorted
This next sections has charts. The charts are always a good thing to look at.
Fractals are considered by many as voodoo magic, but there is a scientific aspect to fractals, and it is not a mystery, it is something simple, like having a glass tube with one side smaller than the other, replete with marbles that need to get through, the only way in which this can happen efficiently is through fractal proportions. The same with everything, especially growth and that is the mystery of fractals. Try it, you will come to the same conclusion.
I've chosen to speak in fractals, because the fundamentals side is too long and outside the terminology of many. This message is addressed to all us, I don't expect a lawyer to understand Heteroskedasticity, and this a letter in terms of that concept would be ineffective. However fractals reflect many of the conditions inside fundamentals in a visual way.
The main rule of fractals is: follow the letters and numbers, understand that everything moves in these proportions, and the formulate rules that happen over and over for reasons that coincide with the fundamentals.
Now, if you agree with this century advancing like never before, in science, tech, and that that will bring enormous prosperity and growth. Then you would say this is the perfect time to bet on the future.
Well you are right, according to the fractal progression.
The wave E is a trent termination and the start of a trend in the opposite direction. The markets have been coming down for more that a year, two in some instances, nd guess what?
All the charts are at the E inflexion. The rule says, when wave E is slightly below wave C that is the signal to enter the market.
Now, we are at wave E, that is also the end of Wave 2, and that means this UP Trend is the WAVE 3 or the progression. It is the largest wave, the steepest, and the longest.
With shorts holding $14 Trillion in short positions, you are well advised to look after your future and put some pennies to work, now.
Which industries?
My favorite company of all is TESLA. But Google, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Chips, Copper (Provided the chilean communists don't ruin it), Software Networks, like ABNB, digital tools like Adobe, many many more, including the actual indexes, SPY, QQQ, IWM.
THE FUTURE - after the charts:
TESLA - E wave ended. - Now here is a perfect example - Tesla is already producing one EV every 13 seconds, that means they have an annual production rate of 2.75 to 3.2 Million Units. The paper napkin rules is 1 Million EVs made = $415 price per share.
2.75 million to 3.2 million, means the share price should already be between $1,142.59 and $1,328 - instead tesla has been ruthlessly shorted to $180.
The images did not come through, you do draw the charts. and do the ABCDE. for indexes like the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM is better to do an abc instead, but the number matches anyhow,
No alt text provided for this image
SPY 500 E ended, now traveling north.
No alt text provided for this image
No alt text provided for this image
Amazon ---
No alt text provided for this image
Apple: Look apple is so cheap here, consider that 3.875 Billion people now can have a smartphone ! The price for apple will be double in the next few years and several times higher at the end of this decade.
No alt text provided for this image
As promised the solution:
Reflationary policies are the way to go.
Lower taxes, for corporate and individuals
Lower regulations east entry and exit of business industries and segments
A smaller government, that outsources as many services as possible.
Education Voucher System, allow the consumer to choose the product (education for their children). The love of a parent for his child, assures better decision. Good schools are rewarded with more vouchers, bad schools and teachers are defunded. Education quality goes up.
Medicine, deregulate, lower compliance rules, eliminate the paperwork, decentralize medicine, that creates competition and a market for medicine where practitioners are more efficient and provide better services. Now it is a hospital network monopoly by design, that has lowered the quality of services, increase corruption in the system, and makes doctors unable to be at their best.
These actions, create more work more businesses, more freedom for people. Less taxes leave more for people to spend, as they spend more, more business prosper, they all pay sales taxes and employment taxes, so in aggregate there is more tax revenue. That excess revenue is invested back into the economy through a private sector that is in competition and creates more efficiently, bridges, roads, schools, universities, parks and in general, all resource allocations go further because they been done by a market in competition.
Lastly, more private industry, means more demand for employees, and that means better salaries and conditions.
Reflationary policies work and so does the Lafer Curve and the ideas of Milton Friedman.
When we discuss other countries not the United States, systems like the nordic systems are better for smaller countries with small populations, but not or massive countries like the United State, China and Russia. It all depends on the size of your country, and the mix of your industry.
One caveat:
Countries that are raw materials exports oriented, will always have extremes in wealth. Because you can mine mineral with a half dead person equally well as you can with a PHD in physics, thus, unless core industries are created, nothing will ever change.
Chile, and most of South America, Exceptios: Brazil and Argentina. But Russia is right there in the unable to develop list, because it lacks core industries.
Enslave your population, and what you get is a population of dummies, that create nothing new, and will always be at the mercy of the creative population.
How to have a creative population? so simple
Reflationary policies are the way to go.
Lower taxes, for corporate and individuals.
Lower regulations, easy entry and exit of business industries and segments.
A Smaller government, that outsources as many services as possible.
WHY THIS IS THE TIME TO THINK ABOUT PARTICIPATING IN A MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE. DISCUSSION: The Global Macro Short Play. If you like this information, copy it fast because It will be erased before the weekend is over.
Published on November 24, 2022
I will let you be the judge. What has been happening until this time.
This paper intends to make you aware of what is happening and of this massive opportunity. Why? because we are a collective and we should collectively help each other, and gain much more perspective. It is called evolution.
This papers is formed as follows, it starts with the preamble and the conditions that lead to this point, high inflation, your portfolio on the floor.
Then the short percentages are outlined.
The commentary about future growth.
Then Charts that show you the fractals.
Lastly a solution for the future.
PRINTED TODAY 11.21.2022
1st. Bottlenecks at California ports, Nancy Pelosi's kingdom. This Excel has the latest short interest percentages for multiple global ETFs. This information should give you a clear idea how indiscriminate this swindle has been. It started the day JB went into the WH.. And decided arbitrarily in my opinion to make it difficult to refine fuels. The next incident had to do with the supply chain, namely bottlenecks at California ports. Initially ships were returning empty, with out containers. Then logically, a container shortage ensued. As if this was not enough, local rules at these ports dictated initially that a maximum of two container would be stuck up and that again created yet another bottleneck. Lastly this same rule makers, blocked old trucks from entering the port alleging added pollution from old truckers, and forced these to load in new trucks and unload to older trucks waiting outside ports to ferry cargo to the intended destinations.You can investigate this information further on your own, there is plenty of information.
2nd. Concurrently oil demand went through the roof fueled by the threats made by Joe Biden, sending users to buy oil futures. A futures contract is made for 1,000 barrels of oil, and the seller of the contract then stores the physical commodity for future delivery, in mass storage, and also in oil tankers. The net result is a shortage of oil and consequently an increase in the commodity price. So, what happened and how come oil is now coming down, you ask? Well the answer is simple and very similar to what happened in 2008, oil prices shoot through the roof, and whan that happens, transport costs go up, and immediately these costs show up in higher prices, thus inflation. So then, why are oil prices coming down? Well after reviewing shipping statistics, form data available from many shipping tracking systems, it was visible that some 48,000 oil tanker were at sea, each with an average capacity of 500,000 barrels. The computation then became super easy, multiply the tankers at sea by 500,000 parrels and the result was 24 Billion Barrels of oil. For reference consumption in the USA for an entire year is 2.4 Billion Barrels, this means there is at least 10 x the annual demand of oil out of the ground.
3rd. Refining capacity in the USA, again Mr. Biden restricts their capacity and shuts down the construction of a super important asset, the Keystone Xl Pipeline from Canada. Obviously affecting gasoline supply and maintaining gasoline at a higher price that what it should be. I am not even addressing natural gas, here. as that is yet another commodity that is even more vulnerable. But the overall result is without question global inflation.
and 4th. Chips restrictions to China, this in my opinion, affected Apple and you saw the price decline, not only for Apple, but Amazon, Google, the S&P, Nasdaq and IWM the Russell 2000, and everything in between.
Shall I add the conflict with Russia, the poor relations we have with China, and the favoritism shown to Iran, and animosity to Saudi Arabia and Israel?
Now, there is another piece of information that should also infuriate you. Did you know that almost all global ETFs have been shorted at the tune of some $14 Trillion UDS? Check the list, printed just recently.
Now is the interesting side of all this story. What is shorting? Yes, I realize this concept may not be clear to everyone. So here is a nice definition from Investopedia.com
Shorting is a strategy used when an investor anticipates that the price of a security will fall in the short term. In common practice, short sellers borrow shares of stock from an investment bank or other financial institution, paying a fee to borrow the shares while the short position is in place.
Caveat: The shares sold don't belong to the shorts, these are your own shares, that brokers lend out to speculators for a fee. It is frankly ridiculous, don't you agree, that someone can come out of the woodwork and just sell your own shares without you even noticing it. Some people like the infamous Jim Chanos specialize in shorting companies, and Jimmy was a backer of the political campaign of our esteemed Mr. Biden no less. Go ahead and as the famous investor, Mark Cuban, what he thinks of Jimmy. Jimmy has also been doing the rounds at the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) touting the virtues of his activities, and guess what Mr. Joe has appointed many of the government positions inside the SEC.
Well, you see, it is not easy to form a very bad opinion of the happenings that have taken place since Mr. Joe took office.
There are many reasons why I believe these policies have all been misconstrued. I will enumerate my views, at then end of this paper, so don't get frustrated, this is not a dead end essay, all complaints and not solution. I will formulate the strategy to get even, and recuperate loses faster, and if we are well organized, we will take our money back from our infamous friend Jimmy and people lihim him.
I am done with the pointing fingers section, and now we enter into the sections that has the strategy, factual information, and solutions.
The Strategy:
Learn what a short squeeze is:
Very simple, the short that sold the shares he did not own, that belong to you, borrowed them from your broker. That seller, has a short position, his portfolio reads with a (-) negative sign for the shares he is short. This means he has to pay them back, no matter what, and pay interest every day on the shares he owes. The interest rates for margin these days is 7.9% and more for risky instruments.
How to evaluate the potential for a short squeeze?
Look at the Percentage of Short interest, it should not exceed .03% on any instrument and for country indexes it should be .02% max for large country indexes, and 0% for small country indexes (why 0% for the smallest, because the components is to small, thus valuing at the single component level).
Realization of the DATA, knowledge is king, so when you learn the numbers, it is super easy to make the call (I have added the number of short percentages for global ETFs, make sure you riview that data. It is fresh data...).
Estimate the future: Will we go back to the cro-magnon era. Or with 8 Billion consumers worldwide (we are now 8 Billion People), and with Starlink now able to connect the 60% of the population (3.875 Billion People) that was previously without internet, less than a year go, now able to become part of the digital economy, and will fuels the growth our our public companies for this century and the next. That is the question, to me, it looks like we are entering in the most prosperous century to date. Every century has seen more and more growth. Therefore the cro-magnon theory is as dumb as a bag with hammers.
How, what happens during a short squeeze. Buyer start buying, shorts start covering, the volume, increases, others see the volume and say to themselves short squeeze, they buy, the shorts panic, and but to cover, more see the shorts covering, more buy, the process repeats itself, and the stock price doubles and sometimes triple. Prices have retreated 50% on average. That means 50% are shorts, few sold. Therefore it has to return to the mean, but as we have just stated, global growth will be spectacular, and therefore the intrinsic value for all these companies is much much higher. Intrinsic value means thinking of your company shares as a bond, when it grows to x how much will it be worth. The formula is simple ((Sales * Net Revenue)*25)) / (shares) number of shares . There is no question that 3.875 Billion more consumers means growth.
Where can I find information on stocks with high short interest?
Here you are, the list of Global ETFs shorted in this Macro Play.
IWM is the Russell 2000 Etf. shorted 32% < this percentage is an aberration, a plain bazooka attack. Any reputable risk manager would fire you for shorting ETFs to this leve, because this is not investing, it is market manipulation. And who do we know is a specialist in Global Macro? Someone dear and close to politics that loves to finances radical district attorneys. Anyhow, returning to topic, nothing like this can every be done without help from policy makers. It would be to risky. But now that you know, and now that the American Government has return to a bipartisan power structure, rest assured, these games are over.
Lastly, you can't fix inflation with interest rates. With rates is the same as using a bazooka, the solution is a different one, it is called, REFLATIONARY POLICIES.
More on this at the end. What I have tried to do here is to show you, that the future is bright, that the market is way way oversold, that equities are super cheap, and that the markets for all tech and industry in general has expanded to more than double in size, thus, valuations are a steal now, and we have a mountain of sneaky shorts to squeeze.
No alt text provided for this image
List of Country ETFs shorted
This next sections has charts. The charts are always a good thing to look at.
Fractals are considered by many as voodoo magic, but there is a scientific aspect to fractals, and it is not a mystery, it is something simple, like having a glass tube with one side smaller than the other, replete with marbles that need to get through, the only way in which this can happen efficiently is through fractal proportions. The same with everything, especially growth and that is the mystery of fractals. Try it, you will come to the same conclusion.
I've chosen to speak in fractals, because the fundamentals side is too long and outside the terminology of many. This message is addressed to all us, I don't expect a lawyer to understand Heteroskedasticity, and this a letter in terms of that concept would be ineffective. However fractals reflect many of the conditions inside fundamentals in a visual way.
The main rule of fractals is: follow the letters and numbers, understand that everything moves in these proportions, and the formulate rules that happen over and over for reasons that coincide with the fundamentals.
Now, if you agree with this century advancing like never before, in science, tech, and that that will bring enormous prosperity and growth. Then you would say this is the perfect time to bet on the future.
Well you are right, according to the fractal progression.
The wave E is a trent termination and the start of a trend in the opposite direction. The markets have been coming down for more that a year, two in some instances, nd guess what?
All the charts are at the E inflexion. The rule says, when wave E is slightly below wave C that is the signal to enter the market.
Now, we are at wave E, that is also the end of Wave 2, and that means this UP Trend is the WAVE 3 or the progression. It is the largest wave, the steepest, and the longest.
With shorts holding $14 Trillion in short positions, you are well advised to look after your future and put some pennies to work, now.
Which industries?
My favorite company of all is TESLA. But Google, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Chips, Copper (Provided the chilean communists don't ruin it), Software Networks, like ABNB, digital tools like Adobe, many many more, including the actual indexes, SPY, QQQ, IWM.
THE FUTURE - after the charts:
TESLA - E wave ended. - Now here is a perfect example - Tesla is already producing one EV every 13 seconds, that means they have an annual production rate of 2.75 to 3.2 Million Units. The paper napkin rules is 1 Million EVs made = $415 price per share.
2.75 million to 3.2 million, means the share price should already be between $1,142.59 and $1,328 - instead tesla has been ruthlessly shorted to $180.
The images did not come through, you do draw the charts. and do the ABCDE. for indexes like the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM is better to do an abc instead, but the number matches anyhow,
No alt text provided for this image
SPY 500 E ended, now traveling north.
No alt text provided for this image
No alt text provided for this image
Amazon ---
No alt text provided for this image
Apple: Look apple is so cheap here, consider that 3.875 Billion people now can have a smartphone ! The price for apple will be double in the next few years and several times higher at the end of this decade.
No alt text provided for this image
As promised the solution:
Reflationary policies are the way to go.
Lower taxes, for corporate and individuals
Lower regulations east entry and exit of business industries and segments
A smaller government, that outsources as many services as possible.
Education Voucher System, allow the consumer to choose the product (education for their children). The love of a parent for his child, assures better decision. Good schools are rewarded with more vouchers, bad schools and teachers are defunded. Education quality goes up.
Medicine, deregulate, lower compliance rules, eliminate the paperwork, decentralize medicine, that creates competition and a market for medicine where practitioners are more efficient and provide better services. Now it is a hospital network monopoly by design, that has lowered the quality of services, increase corruption in the system, and makes doctors unable to be at their best.
These actions, create more work more businesses, more freedom for people. Less taxes leave more for people to spend, as they spend more, more business prosper, they all pay sales taxes and employment taxes, so in aggregate there is more tax revenue. That excess revenue is invested back into the economy through a private sector that is in competition and creates more efficiently, bridges, roads, schools, universities, parks and in general, all resource allocations go further because they been done by a market in competition.
Lastly, more private industry, means more demand for employees, and that means better salaries and conditions.
Reflationary policies work and so does the Lafer Curve and the ideas of Milton Friedman.
When we discuss other countries not the United States, systems like the nordic systems are better for smaller countries with small populations, but not or massive countries like the United State, China and Russia. It all depends on the size of your country, and the mix of your industry.
One caveat:
Countries that are raw materials exports oriented, will always have extremes in wealth. Because you can mine mineral with a half dead person equally well as you can with a PHD in physics, thus, unless core industries are created, nothing will ever change.
Chile, and most of South America, Exceptios: Brazil and Argentina. But Russia is right there in the unable to develop list, because it lacks core industries.
Enslave your population, and what you get is a population of dummies, that create nothing new, and will always be at the mercy of the creative population.
How to have a creative population? so simple
Reflationary policies are the way to go.
Lower taxes, for corporate and individuals.
Lower regulations, easy entry and exit of business industries and segments.
A Smaller government, that outsources as many services as possible.
WHY THIS IS THE TIME TO THINK ABOUT PARTICIPATING IN A MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE. DISCUSSION: The Global Macro Short Play. If you like this information, copy it fast because It will be erased before the weekend is over.