FOLLOW PRICE ACTION & KNOW S&R Bullish Target $221.5 Bearish Target:$197 I will use this to track Day trading Price Action
Detailed Insight: 2/28 TESLA is currently one of if not the Strongest Stock and is helping to hold up the Markets. Strong Move today on Lower Volume . I believe that the Rally is close to wrapping up at this stage of the "Mark-UP" *Wyckoff Distribution" I can see Possible Bullish Continuation through Wednesday.
Technicals/Indicators/Patterns: $200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets too .. -^Bullish double bottom pattern places TSLA move to $220 area -^Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side BEARISH: -Bearish Rising Wedge on Daily- if pattern completes, measured move will go to fill gap @ $147.61 --Bearish Divergences are formed on lower time frames (4hr-1hr) -Daily Bearish Divergences are looking to follow suit -OBV & Momentum indicators are diverging to the negative (OBV is High but Momentum is contrary) -Price has been moving down but A/D Line continues rising *I analyze this as Higher Distribution _____________________________ -***TIME FRAME: Analyzing consolidation patterns and impulse moves (Mark-UP) - I am seeing Consolidation on average of 25-27 days and Impulse Moves lasting 14 days *Tesla is going to hit 27 days of consolidation on Wednesday I can foresee the Markdown Phase Beginning for 2 weeks and moving into consolidation until before next earnings in April before the Next Mark-UP This aligns up with Seasonal Market Trends ( Bullish in Jan - Decline mid Feb to mid March) - Options Current Options info: *$200 Call Option Wall -Contrarian view is that with High Call Options @ $200 price will close below that by end of week (Market Makers do not want to pay-out) Max-Pain is currently at 197.5 -Bullish view: amount of options could create a "Gamma Squeeze" -Squeezing Tesla to test or surpass Highs in the short-term, ***Short-term pump & Dump Weekly Expected Move: $215 High $197 Low
Positives: -Investor Day is Hyping up the bullish trend as everyone is preparing for Elon to showcase "GEN 3" platform -a new commodity vehicle for $25-30k before mark-up. This has retail piling into TSLA stock with an enormous $200 call Option wall again.. -Berlin Higher production levels --QQQ Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side - Help to continue Rally
Analysis: Short-Term Neutral/ Bearish (Long-Term Bullish ) My bias is Bearish with a possible pump & dump scenario in play ... $200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets to .. If Tuesday shows strong Commitment and closes at the highs.. We could see Bullish continuation to $234. Tomorrow is VERY CRITICAL - Monthly close above $200 shows strong buyer commitment - if there is a sell-off and we see a close below $197, I feel confident that Tsla will retrace to $145 area to fill gap ( 0.618 retracement ) Tsla Closing strong tomorrow will lead me to believe that consolidation may continue through next week until we get March Payroll Data (this puts my target price to $232-$234 before we see "Mark-Down" *watch how TSLA reacts to Weekly Expected high at $215 area
-I am staying away from Options except for "Day-Of" -Day Trading has been exceptional - waiting 15min after market open has proved beneficial
Trade active
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Good morning - pre-market TSLA is gapping above resistance, options gamma squeeze could be in play.. along with Investors Day Hype. If TSLA does not break below pre-market low ($210.5) this could go for the 200 daily MA & .382 fib ($221.5) coincidence that they happen to align up perfectly today?..LOL
Pay attention on how It reaction at these key levels: * $212.8-$214 Left Shoulder High & Weekly Expected Move Big selling could indicate weakness or possible hype Rally * $217.65 previous High *221.5 200 ma & Fib
Bulls: Keep above $210 & don't fill morning gap - Big Volume followed by slow & continuous upside will show True buyer conviction Todays Target is $221.5 (7%move) Bears: minimum Keep Tsla below $214 Fill Gap at $207.82 *Push Price Below $197.08 (7% move at current pre-market price of $211.7)
7% moves from Bulls and Bears...hmm Coincidence? LOL Good luck all
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Pay attention to 2yr & 10yr-at resistance w/ strength DXY- at Support - Break of support will Move markets up Vix is still above 20 -NDX & SP futures look week *Today should be a Kangaroo Day
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Revised Pre-Market Low-$210.26 (Bulls need to stay above)
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Bearish Bias * but still w/in first 15min of open 209.67 minor resistance - $212 area can be opportunity for re-short
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Good Short risk to reward:
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Long Idea- $208-208.25 - Stop Loss 206.29
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shorts!!!! niice - move stop-loss to $208.5 (or take $4 profit now) & prepare for re-shorting around 210-212 if tsla moves up Longs: support: 206 -204 -201
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Shorts - Be careful shorting @ $210 - Break above 209.5 with strong re-test is bullish
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Longs -move stop-loss to $207.25 - TSLA having trouble at 208.5 ...
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BEARS need to break $206 for Bearish continuation - otherwise Bulls will go re-test highs
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Bulls-Buy 206.5 - short-stop-loss at 206.29 if $206 is broken - ensure $204 area is retested as new support -**My intraday Scalping trading*not advice
Trade active
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revised Support & Resistance Zones:
Keep an eye on Futures/DXY & VIX for Swing Trade positions - see you guys this afternoon
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Bulls - TSLA is basing in the $204 area - good Risk-reward Long position
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Bulls you need to hold above $203
Bears- see chart
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possible inverse Head & Shoulders on 2 min: right shoulder cannot break below break below $204.63
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**if ..*IF the inverse H&S on 2 min plays out (2min needs to cross above 200 ma with 20 ma) 206 is strong resistance
**this could be a larger H&S on 15 min just a thought - good luck all
I couldn't leave - this set-up was to perfect : I wanted to share my insight and hope it helps you inverse H&S is in play / Wyckoff
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Bears are Back... H&S is still in play
Here are My Kangaroo Bearish Schematics on How Market Makers will Trick Retail.. yeah, I'm Still Biased to the Bearish side - This looks like Distribution ....until I see other-wise Hope you find this entertaining:
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Bulls need to step-up now - I want to see Bulls push above $206.60
Bears- This could be a big capitulation move Have Fun! - I'm setting Stop-loss at $207
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The Bulls have an agenda - Get TSLA to new Highs. -They may try to Gap up again to trigger stop-loss shorts and fuel a short-squeeze rally -There are several Bullish/Neutral Patterns on the small time frame that give bulls a strong opportunity to make that happen today. Especially since it is investors day -Break above $209.50 should ease the resistance at $211.44 and trigger Diamond bullish break to new highs and coincidentally can play-out the double break-out pattern to the 200 MA. *$200 +$210 Calls are rolling in this could create a gamma squeeze to help bullish bias (Market Makers will want to Push Tesla below $205 before end of week)
Good Luck - Choose a side or wait until after today before entering *Don't Fomo or be to Greedy to take profits
Thanks for the detailed analysis. Really good insight on both directions. Let’s go bulls!
Black_Sheep1
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@prinyeah, Well I'm not an advisor nor give advice how you should trade, but I hope the anlysis helps you profit from your trades, If I were Day trading I would of sold at $207.75 or set my stop-loss underneath the large volume candle of the 200 ma break-out on the 2 min ($207) if I were swing Trading I would set My stop-Loss at 206.25 Don't be afraid to Take Profit Good Luck!
prinyeah
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@Black_Sheep1, Of course. much appreciated. I was swinging long yesterday just to get out this morning before the bell. Took my profit when RSI 70+ and reentered 206.52 to see how it goes. Stop placed at 206.24
prinyeah
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Thank you for your insight, entered at 203.98 and holding
Black_Sheep1
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@prinyeah, I believe that This is Bullish..until it's not - watch price action & if day trading I like 2 min Frame using 200 & 20 ..there a lot more to it than that. But that's for another time I just want all retail traders to succeed - again good luck
prinyeah
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@Black_Sheep1, Thanks, you as well. I'm scalping along. target 1 208.25 hit, next is 209.52. And of course, the MM will definitely do the max pain Theta burn as you suggest.
Black_Sheep1
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@prinyeah, I really thought that the Double Bottom was going to play-out.. technically it is still valid , but I believe that Market Makers are ensuring that $200 Call Options for 3/3 are being decayed
prinyeah
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@Black_Sheep1, Just saw this. Thank you. Now the gap is so obvious waiting to get filled.
Black_Sheep1
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@prinyeah, The stop-triggers have not been set-off..$6 in the money congrats. BULLs are in to win - H&S maybe out - Looks Like a Bearish Diamond or Rising Rectangle..lol.. or TSLA goes to double bottom target & our Bullish bets win today - I am trying not to be bearish, but Macro picture looks like a set-up
prinyeah
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@Black_Sheep1, Just got out shorting, entered long till the end. Thanks again. Will see what tomorrow brings!