The latest rally in Tesla is over 57 points or 32% from a low at 181.40 last month.
The question to ask yourself now? How cheap is Tesla? Well at the low in March it was trading at 7.3 times sales, which was down from peaks in excess of 14 times sales reached in multiple quarters in 2013 and 2014.
This chart is almost untouched from the last publication in early March, but the bottom wasn't in just yet as a slightly lower low was reached in late March. With new sales data ending 3/31 soon to be received when earnings are out in early May, a new, lower PSR will be graphed that might put the valuation under 6 PSR. It's good to understand "how much you are paying for shares" or at least "what is the value inherent in each share" as a reference. As time marches on and sales increase, the valuation metric for TSLA will keep dropping down towards the 3-2 zone to match the auto industry, but that will be after many years.
On a technical level, the method of calculating trend called RgMov registered a new, 2-month high on April 6th with TSLA at 203. The last sell signal was at 231 on December 2, 2014 when TSLA went into a 2-month low on RgMov. It's a simple indicator system: When RgMov hits a 2-month high then you are in an uptrend. If a 2-month low, downtrend. Simple as that. Look for oversold CCI readings of -100 once you are in a buy signal for additional low-risk entries. Vice versa for downtrends: Look for overbought readings of +100 in CCI to sell short.
The last 6 volume and range expansion days are on the upside as the April 30 announcement about "Home Battery Storage Systems" gets closer and closer.
So, I'm looking at 255 for an upside potential target where the PSR will be 10 again. When the new earnings numbers hit, I will adjust that number higher.
Tim 4:16PM EST April 28, 2015
Comments
RialtoRaven
⋅
Tim,
I really like your RgExp and RgMov indicators!
Would you be willing to share them on Trading View? Great call on TSLA
timwest
⋅
I am working on how to make that happen since they are paid subscriptions to the scripts. My goal is to help everyone learn how to read charts and to figure out what levels are important.
timwest
⋅
What I mean is that the indicators are at "Key Hidden Levels" where you can subscribe to the indicators on a monthly/annual basis.
RialtoRaven
⋅
Thank You Tim!
Amazingpowerpatternguy
⋅
I saw a How Its Made TV show that was all about the BMW I8 and gotta tell you the whole time was thinking TSLA is in trouble aside from the cult status it enjoys. just saying.
timwest
⋅
I'll check that "How Its Made" TV show out. Thanks for the tip!
timwest
⋅
And along the same lines, do you think Apple has cult status too?
JoshDacres
⋅
genius.
timwest
⋅
Thanks JoshDacres. I put a lot of information on the graph and hope that it isn't too cluttered.
I really like your RgExp and RgMov indicators!
Would you be willing to share them on Trading View? Great call on TSLA