Here’s my video reply to one of the questions asked in my prior video. I wanted to reply to everyone who asked questions, but my video ran way too long. TradingView has a time limit for videos.
In this video, I answer the question that @Alt-B asked: How much of the coming recession has the market already priced in?
I also show the Mortgage Rate Premium chart. This chart shows how much higher the average 30-year U.S. mortgage rate is than the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond. By comparing mortgage rates to the risk-free rate, we get an idea of how much risk the market is placing on mortgages being issued today. The premium is the highest ever, looking back about 35 years -- even higher now than during the subprime mortgage crisis.
I hope you enjoy this video. Feel free to leave a comment below with your own thoughts about the current market. Also, feel free to ask any questions that you’d like me to answer in a future video. I will try my best to answer as many questions as I can.
Finally, if you enjoy my videos and want to get updates, be sure to follow my ideas, (I will post reply videos as an update to prior videos).
Thank you for your time in watching!
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I apologize for the bad audio and video quality. I am still learning the ropes of posting videos on TradingView. I will definitely try to fix this in future videos!
@pwilliamswww, Thanks! I put a lot of effort into my posts. Compliments like yours make all the effort worth it.
simtrader19a
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vf_investment
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This is one of the best analysis that I've seen recently. Well done mate.
We agree with all you said. SPX will drop hard. Feel free to check our view:
pole69ers
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appreciate the info good work hope it works out
simchsi
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Very nice, thanks a lot
simtrader19a
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Here is the US03MY & US10Y, with CPI and current FED Fund rate
simtrader19a
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I have seen the historical log mean chart of US index before and found the standard deviations usually are Fib percentages hence why fund mangers like this chart as any losing stock is kicked out of index when does not meet the criteria , as well displays the effect on compound interest when applied the overall growth of the market since conception Nice work