TSLA bulls are still struggling to recapture the 200DMA (605), similar to Bitcoin PA. We have support around 550 with heavy MA resistance overhead, and headlines in the MSM about weak China sales, which apparently fell 8.6% month over month. It's not looking good for Elon Musk right now...
When China bites it hurts - ask any Australian Crayfish or Wheat farmer. Right now we are seeing a fierce competition of East meets West around trade. China wants to squelch imports but it expecting other countries to continue to buy its imports. This is not a sustainable position for any nation and I think this will get uglier before it gets resolved. If any Western business is exposed to China, it has the potential to have it's tap turned off and we will see much more of this.
On the bigger picture, though the exponential growth in Tesla prices and its earnings/stock price is a risk - and as we know Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ has a $530 million bet against Tesla - so will he be proved right this time too?
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@majicktrader, Absolutely. I think the valuations are insane. However, if money remains cheap, which it likely won't for much longer, Tesla could grow into it's valuation. Personally, I think the policy makers will start to discuss tapering bond purchases at Jackson Hole this summer. That's really one of the only catalysts for a severe market correction imo. Otherwise buy-backs will continue to distort valuations, and price will defy gravity perpetually off of printed money and ZIRP. China's credit impulse is now falling, and so we may see them cut imports dramatically soon as you mentioned. My big concern is US imports and how we're going to continue to run this massive trade deficit. At the moment the US is producing next to nothing. Lol.
majicktrader
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@Hedge_Of_The_World, So the US Bank Stress Test released in a couple of weeks on 24/6 may send stocks even higher assuming it is all good and buy-backs are re-introduced? Yeah I have also pencilled in the Jackson Hole seminar as a place where they start to "talk about tapering" My main concern though is jobs - they still may be slower to return than what analysts expect, and we have two more NFP' before JH to confirm the trend. If job numbers remain soft while inflation remains high, than the bank, if sticking to its strategy will remain dovish. If this happens than the USD is heading south and commodities and risk assets to the Sky. So its going to be an interesting time ahead over the US summer (my winter - it is pouring outside).
jojofang0901
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interesting view my frd :) keep it up
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@jojofang0901, Thanks! I appreciate the kind words, my friend.
Financier_Guy
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Tesla Was The First In This Fake Pricing of 2020-21! I myself Prefer NIO for Longterm Invest In EV Industry! Cause With these Cycle of Events china is gonna be The next Power of the World😁And Chinese Stocks will rule the market too Thanks for analysis mate 🙏
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@Financier_Guy, Anytime buddy! I agree, when you look at China's GDP growth, the US has no choice but to print to compete. We're going to fall behind very soon, and then potentially the US dollar will lose reserve status. OR, the entire ponzi implodes, and we see the return of king dollar, and Vix. Lol. Should be an excting couple years ahead at the very least!
Financier_Guy
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@Hedge_Of_The_World You Are Right as Always dude 🤣 i can't disagree with You. and yes I saw on News that Russia is Gonna remove or at least Decrease their USD Reserves and want to use CNY,EUR,XAU for their Reserves and its means That Russia dont want to Fall Behind! Covid19 And Election of Biden was the Last Piece of Puzzle for Ending USA Era!
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@Financier_Guy, For sure, Russia is seemingly "cashing out" of the dollar. Unless we see a complete reversal in policy, and we get debt under control, I think the US will lose the race as you mentioned. It's very possible this is the beginning of the end for the dollar and the US as leader of the world economy.
Financier_Guy
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I Believe its Going to Happen Soon Or Later! will see whats happening Next and as u mentioned is Gonna Be So Intresting to Watch New Era 👍
On the bigger picture, though the exponential growth in Tesla prices and its earnings/stock price is a risk - and as we know Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ has a $530 million bet against Tesla - so will he be proved right this time too?