Hello friends. We think that Elon Musk is possibly the Greatest Liar In Human History.
Did you know that the has commited securities fraud with his darling stock Tesla at least once? Did you know that he claims to be Autistic but isn't? That he made an April Fool’s Day tweet in which he announced Tesla had gone bankrupt? That he lied about having sex with the wife of Google cofounder Sergey Brin?
There are tens of thousands more examples, and it's good to go ahead and do your own research about this.
When is the last time that Elon Musk told the truth about something? It may have been a very long time.
The upcoming trial will be a key moment for everyone. It's important to note that this trial is not Elon Musk VS Twitter. It's actually Elon Musk VS the law. The ruling in October will dictate whether the rich are fully immune to the law or whether even the rich must obey the law on occasion. Elon has signed an ironclad contract which does not have an easy escape, and the fact is that he is broke. If he is ordered to purchase Twitter, there is a great chance that he will be forced to sell his Tesla shares. It doesn't seem like any investor will want to get involved with lending money to this liar after he changed his mind about a deal he had already agreed to, since they should know their money will likely be stolen.
The probability that Elon will buy Twitter this year is priced at 33% on Polymarket.
Let's just say the real chance of a buyout is actually 33%, and that Elon Musk will need to use purely his own money from selling shares of Tesla in this situation. In that case, his stock will plummet like never before. Let's say that it will fall 40% in this case. So from a probability standpoint we see the risk in terms of: 33% chance for price to fall 40% -> Net risk is 13% to the downside. (0.33 times 0.4 = 0.132)
The options market for Tesla has failed to fully price in the downside risk, since put options for the end of the year at a strike price of $960 are trading at only $160 each.
On top of this Twitter lawsuit issue, Tesla itself is also very overvalued with a disgusting forward P/E ratio of 74, several times the market average. Not to mention, we are now in a recession. During a recession, car brands, especially luxury car brands like Tesla, tend to not only shed profits but actually print LOSSES. So it's very possible that for the next earnings report on 10/19/22 there will be a sizable loss for Tesla overall, which could cause panic and drive prices even lower right before Elon is forced to market sell a ton of shares.
One important thing to note is that the lower Tesla goes BEFORE Elon's potential sale of shares, the worse this will be. What I mean is, if Tesla drops 50% on it's own, that means he will need to sell TWICE as many shares just to get the same amount of cash. So you could think of the price going lower as sort of a flywheel effect where it will only get worse and worse.
It's going to be amazing to see these Teslatards who call themselves "investors" but are really just fools complicit in a scheme driven by a patholigical liar lose their money like they deserve. The markets teach this same lesson over and over again, and they will learn it the hard way: Fly too close to the sun, and you get burned.
@mrwgreig, so ive heard. I suppose Musk will be covering the costs of this, with the profits from my puts on his stock. Kind of him.
Wezzie
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Most of us trade company shares, not personalities. Clinton’s are by far the most corrupt criminals in America. Your liberal status shows clearly in your vitriol, please stick to stocks
bowtrix
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@Wezzie, If you trade Twitter or Tesla stock, you are trading personality 2 times more than you are trading shares. And considering I've been winning at that game, I'm not about to stop playing. Check my Twitter idea to see how I perfectly called the bottom and nailed the Fair Value calculation based on Elon's Game, not based on shares. If the face of your stock happens to be a massive shareholder, and makes Tweets like "Tesla overvalued imo", then the key to predicting Tesla stock lies in understanding the psychology of the man behind the stock even more than the understanding of the stock itself. Fact is that you are just a retail trader with zero trading ideas, and you got mad because I insulted your favorite person.
Wezzie
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@bowtrix, thanks for the polite opinion. I think Elon musk is a morally bankrupt person, however he’s a flippin genius when it comes to innovation. I don’t touch Twitter stocks. My Tesla stocks are up 138%, so I’ll keep just being a retail investor with zero trading ideas and I’m not mad LOL
Very realistic and extensive fundamental analysis! I share your views. Although at the present situation... Inflation, recession, whatever FED wants to call it or try to change the definition of it does not mean it's not happening right now, ongoing war, fake news, influencers using their money and knowledge of human nature. Greed, lack of common sense etc. You never know. But yes. I do agree a thank you for putting those thoughts and facts on "paper".