April 25, 2013 Comments: Now that TSLA has cleared the sellers and the stock is moving up, the more difficult question now becomes what to do with shares up at these levels. It takes a much more patient mindset to let a winner ride from these levels and to hold onto the risk that shares drop back down to "value support" that is rising steadily through time. As TSLA is able to produce high quality cars that are free from material defects and build on their past successes and its first quarterly profit, it would seem that the upside could be enormous for equity owners. One simple technique to profit is to buy all dips to the 21-day lower 2-sd band (aka Bollinger Band) for the next year and risk 3 average trading ranges. Exit on rallies back to the upper standard deviation band at 2 sd's. When I get a more exact time and date, I will post it. For now, take a look at long term out of the money puts at $40 to sell, they are expensive and generate a decent return for the risk that I am willing to take. Tim 12:19PM EST Thursday, April 25, 2013
Comments
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Oh my what would have Tim profited had he held? Imagine keeping a handful of OTM Call options with selling shares. $2 to $3 million?
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Common pattern we see for squeeze stocks. Although the upper line is often horizontal, in this case we have a slight ascending line.
timwest
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I just closed out my Jan $65 puts that I had sold (instead of the $40 strike options as mentioned above) just after this posting was made. I sold the Jan 2014 65-strike puts for more than $10 each and just repurchased them for $1.70. So, it was a solid trade, but only a "base hit" instead of a "grand slam" had I just invested money in TSLA shares outright.
Tesla reports earnings after the close and I am looking for a market reaction to the earnings report that could be dramatic. I want to have cash ready to deploy to buy TSLA on a big move down in price. I am starting to see Tesla Model-S vehicles all the time now, so I know they are growing rapidly and I only seem to hear very positive user experience reports. So, despite all of the critics and doubters about TSLA, there seems to still be long term upside and plenty of it. So, be prepared to get in on a dip.
2:30PM EST Wednesday, August 7, 2013
admin
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Tim, what are you expectation about future TSLA stock prices? It would be great if you post some thoughts on this. Thanks.
timwest
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Thanks for asking - I have given TSLA quite a bit of time to create some vapor trails to work with. I think what is, or would be, extremely useful is to be able to plot the news on the chart to give people an idea of what news has come out at what price levels. I wonder if we could plot the earnings release bar in a different color, and fatter, for example, to highlight that very important day. I just went to the Tesla store on Saturday to see how impressive the storefront is. It is in a mall, right near the Apple Store in White Plains, NY. The car is so impressive - you can see everyone admiring the car like they were in a museum. I'll get to a chart on TSLA.
admin
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We'll work on the news/earnings on the chart.
Yep, i heard about Tesla stores but never been to any of them. Their marketing is fantastic but don't you think that the stock is overestimated considering the market cap?
timwest
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Yes, the stock is high priced and ahead of its current and near future earnings potential. Stocks trade on all kinds of earnings: past earnings, future earnings, GAAP earnings, non-GAAP earnings, etc. What makes TSLA so interesting is that it is so difficult to predict far enough into the future to earn a 100% return of your investment if you bought TSLA outright. But thankfully, we have a stock market that doesn't work that way. I've had a great idea for an indicator that would measure just how far out into the future that investors are anticipating. The indicator doesn't exist except in my mind and yet the logic is simple. With TSLA, clearly the number of years is on the extreme side of the distribution. The same can be said of Amazon - where's the "return"? It's not about "returning" earnings to investors, rather, it's all about growth and market-share by serving the end-user customer.
admin
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Tell us more about the indicator and we'll add it to TradingView!:) And thank you one more time for your input.
timwest
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It's a fundamental indicator as opposed to a price-based indicator.
admin
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This sounds reasonable. We are working now on the fundamental data so you'll be able apply EPS, REV, PEG and many other fields right on the chart.