Why Tesla (TSLA) Could Hit $450 Then $500 by EOY 2025 or 2026: Key Catalysts Tesla's hovering around $315 today (as of Sept 23, 2025), down ~20% YTD amid sales dips, but the setup for a rebound to $450 (43% upside) and $500 (59% upside) is primed by execution on autonomy, EVs, and energy. Here's the bull case, blending fundamentals and forecasts:Robotaxi & FSD Rollout Momentum: Tesla's Cybercab unveil in Oct 2025 could catalyze a surge, with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) v13 hitting highways by year-end. ARK Invest's base case eyes $4,600 by 2026 (driven 60%+ by autonomy), but even conservative models like CoinCodex forecast $453 avg in 2026, with highs to $664 on ride-hailing revenue potentially adding $10T market value.
2 sources
Piper Sandler just hiked their PT, calling TSLA the "top idea" for AV investing.
EV Delivery Rebound & Affordable Models: Post-2025 sales weakness (1.8M deliveries est.), expect 2.3M+ in 2026 with Model 2 launch (~$25K EV) ramping production to 3M+ annually. This counters China/EU headwinds, recaptures 20%+ US market share, and boosts EPS to $0.49 next quarter—fueling a $450 breakout per LongForecast's Q3 2026 path.
2 sources
Morningstar sees a 2026 revival echoing 2016's Model 3 surge.
Energy Storage Boom: Megapack deployments exploding (Q2 2025: 9.4 GWh), with 50%+ YoY growth projected through 2026, diversifying revenue to 15%+ of total. This hedges EV volatility, pushing margins to 20%+ and supporting $500 on 11% revenue growth to $130B.
Optimus Humanoid Robot Sales: External sales kick off late 2025/early 2026, targeting $20K/unit with factory pilots scaling to millions. This could add $1T+ valuation long-term, per ARK, but even modest adoption lifts sentiment to $500 by EOY 2026.
2 sources
2 sources
Piper Sandler just hiked their PT, calling TSLA the "top idea" for AV investing.
EV Delivery Rebound & Affordable Models: Post-2025 sales weakness (1.8M deliveries est.), expect 2.3M+ in 2026 with Model 2 launch (~$25K EV) ramping production to 3M+ annually. This counters China/EU headwinds, recaptures 20%+ US market share, and boosts EPS to $0.49 next quarter—fueling a $450 breakout per LongForecast's Q3 2026 path.
2 sources
Morningstar sees a 2026 revival echoing 2016's Model 3 surge.
Energy Storage Boom: Megapack deployments exploding (Q2 2025: 9.4 GWh), with 50%+ YoY growth projected through 2026, diversifying revenue to 15%+ of total. This hedges EV volatility, pushing margins to 20%+ and supporting $500 on 11% revenue growth to $130B.
Optimus Humanoid Robot Sales: External sales kick off late 2025/early 2026, targeting $20K/unit with factory pilots scaling to millions. This could add $1T+ valuation long-term, per ARK, but even modest adoption lifts sentiment to $500 by EOY 2026.
2 sources
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.