4xForecaster

Occult Geometries Suggest Probable Buyoancy | $TLSA #tsla #tesla

NASDAQ:TSLA   TESLA MTRS INC
2373 53 16
2 years ago
Re: TSLA            

Following is a quick analysis offered in a personal inquiry; I was asked that it be shared in TradingView.com. I thank my friend for his trust and recommendation.

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Here is the 60-min. chart, which is revealing important technical developments:

snapshot

1 - A positive divergence in RSI has built a solid floor, interdicting or imposing a very-high resistance right at 183.84 - not sure what happened there fundamentally, but this will be one hard floor to crack.

2 - A 1.272 Fibonacci extension is the shallowest acceptable counter-trend value to consider any aggressively counter-directional market. Here, it did that right at that aforementioned positive RSI divergence ... Again, a very fast turn-around built at a very solid buttressed value of 183.84

3 - A nascent bullish channel is forming. This remains to be further elucidated by added validation levels, but that channel might perhaps belong to a "momental line" which are part of the occult and weird behavior in the market I have discovered. (see how the translated upper channel boundary maintains angular relevance in this window ... Very important feature suggesting a maximal rate of acceeration, much like a car has a maximal speed based on its intrinsec mechanics. Each stock submits to the same mechanical "terminal velocity" over time, hence the momentum allusion.

Right now, the precocious targets are as featured, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 256.10 - 27 FEB 2015

and

2 - TG-Hi = 283.70 - 27 FEB 2015.

OVERALL: The M5/M15 chart shows a retail-level analysis that often falls to higher-weighed players in terms of financial responding.

If 225.44 is breached to the upside while price remains in the (still speculative) bullish channel, then the targets are likely to be part of a larger Elliott Wave Flat pattern with added upside.

David
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PS: I do not hold any position in TSLA             .


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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5 months ago
Comment: 21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

#Tesla hit both targets, defined in February 2015, and as per expected from a qualitative target (i.e.: TG-Hi or TG-Lo), it acted as a level of reversal, rather than a mere retracement level:

snapshot


At this point, price has moved in a consolidation pattern, if looking at a much higher timeframe (i.e.: Weekly), which is where the next analysis will originate.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
5 months ago
Comment: 21 JUN 2016 - ADDENDUM - $TSLA/Weekly Chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price fell in the direction of forecast pathway in this WEEKLY chart since forecast emitted yesterday (PURPLE arrow):

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Expect this large consolidation pattern to shake up the slippery hands, however, this presumed 5-point pattern should carry bulls to higher highs once completed.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
5 months ago
Comment: 24 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Per Predictive/Forecasting Model, price fell along the dashed arrow forecast line - Still expecting a limited decline, with probable support in the 175.00 vicinity:

snapshot


Watch for a dominant geometry in the background, likely to fashion price action into its generalized outline.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
3 months ago
Comment: 29 AUG 2016 - Chart Update /Tech-Note:

snapshot


Predictive risk pathway (dashed curved line) remains unchanged. Expecting a 5-point geometry to develop over the following months - Expect a continued 3-3-3-3-3 pattern.

CROW Code students, you should be able to discern a probable 3rd element out of five developing - albeit still speculative - in CROW-Body. Signal service released only when pertinent, using CROW Code method - Expecting Point-E to rest on 3 probable target. Obviously, this is a WEEKLY chart, so there remains plenty of time ahead.

Regards,

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster
3 months ago
Comment: 01 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to fall as forecast. Look for probable support and possible reversal at 175.00 level:
snapshot


Regards,

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: @4xForecaster
CROW Signal Provider
CROW Code Course Instructor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
NOTE:

Here is the M5/M15 chart alluded to in the analysis, which shows a much more narrowly defined predictive/forecasting profile - Following is chart and quick comments:

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snapshot


Re: TSLA - It's coming back UP, but not in any way significant as far as the overhead resistance is. It's like a man swimming in the cold ocean after the stock market is taking on water.

Looking at it going up to 215.42 - See chart ...
If I removed all drawing off of the chart and looked at it from a LONGER term,, then it's a different story (... see H1 chart).
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you very much for the Tesla forecast David. I was hoping you would turn your attention to it sometime. Very pleasing to see the bias is bullish as I'm particularly hopeful that Elon Musk's ideas could revolutionize the motor vehicle and energy sector....never mind his ambitions to go to Mars! Much appreciated as always.
Kind regards
iefan
+1 Reply
02 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA: Recent decline corresponds to standard symmetrical ab=cd patterning, Relax:

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@tradingview #tesla #TSLA
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

194.75 is the approximate projection of the standard ab=cd pattern:

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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
03 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA bouncing off of geometry's completion point; Bulls remain in force:

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@tradingview #tesla #TSLA
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Note that on yesterday's chart, the ab portion of the total ab=cd pattern was short, causing a short projection point for its counter-part. This was corrected in the chart ... Still, the principle remains unchanged here, which is that of using simple symmetrical projection to establish a probable support/reversal level.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
04 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA still revv'ing its engine against solid 194.75 backstop; Bullish predictive model:

snapshot


@tradingview #tesla #TSLA
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:Friends,

A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:



WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?

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TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.

Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.

Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.

Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum, the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.

All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.

Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor
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HOW DO NOMINAL TARGETS RELATE TO PULL-BACKS; WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RETRACEMENTS AND REVERSALS; HOW TO THEY RELATE TO TARGETS:

I will add that TG-Hi/Hix/Lo/Lox, the impact on price is typically a reversal - not just retracement - in price. NOTE that that the higher the timeframe, the higher the probability of these levels to impose their reversible impact on price. In contrast, the numerical targets, (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... etc.) are levels at which price is expected to retrace, not reverse.

The difference between a reversal event and a retracement relates to the depth of price turning around relative to the impulse that created its initial elan or swing. Hence, in a retracement, expect to see pull-backs in the Fibonacci orders or 0.382, 0.500, down to 0.618, although in the most aggressive cases, pull backs can be as minor as 0.214 or even 0.114, indicative of a more aggressive underlying strength, eager to resume the initial swing.

In contrast, a reversal will see price pulling back in deeper contraction, in the Fibonacci orders in excess of 0.618. Here, look for 0.786, 0.886 or double-top/bot events as far as contractions go, or in the most aggressive counter-directional events, look for negative extensions, in the Fibonacci orders of 1.131, 1.272, 1.414. or 1.618.


OVERALL:

Each timeframe represents a microcosm of players, seeking a technical advantage over one another. What the erudite trader should be able to do is remain in his/her own familiar environment, in which she has developed the best responses, not based on external information such as technicals, quantitative data or fundamental feeds, but simply by accepting that the lower the timeframe, the more abundant, stronger and better funded breed of players inhabiting the upper temporal canopy in the wilderness of layered traders. But, one cannot have the right emotional apparatus if she is constantly tempted to rethink oneself. Hence, the adversarial ground lies not at that timeframe, nor at the above above or below your won, but that non-temporal milieu within herself. You are your own true arbitrer, s subject to emotional slippage and enormous cultural capital that will impose the values in your directional biases.

Falling for the tricks of another adversary is something you cannot avoid, but falling to own's on emotional tricks is up to the maturing trader -Get yourself a coach, a third-eye, a person who can see you the wish you looked at some other trader.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----
+1 Reply
08 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA entered strongest bullish resistance range; Tests bullish directional commitment:

snapshot


@tradingview #TSLA #tesla
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
08 MAR 2015 - Addendum: Predictive Model TG-Lo defined:

Predictive/forecasting model defined 188.30 as its TG-Lo. Before that level, the bullish entrenchment is expected to take the brunt of bearish push.

A break and close below the 188.30 decreased the chance of a rallying. In such case, further analysis would require consideration of a higher timeframe:

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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
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Hi David, how many Wolfe Wave rules did I break producing this chart? I'll do some more research, just enjoying the charting on tradingview!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan , none broken at all. I posted the second 4-hour chart with that line to imply this very possibility. The 5-prime position would represent a bearish push towards the parameters that would still be permissible to complete the WW - Very nice.

David
+1 Reply
18 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA peels off forecast Bullish Entrenchment; Bullish outlook remains intact, in force:

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@tradingview #tesla #tsla
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
19 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA about to face critical headwinds; Will determine bulls' strength, price direction:

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@tradingview #tsla #tesla
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
Reply
iefan PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hi David, Just trying to spot WW's.....TF is very short term, however nice tunnelling and ABC ( Z ? ) between points 3 and 4?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - Yes, great catch ... Has it completed in the expected direction?

Feel free to post follow-up posts to illustrate the frame-by-frame development of the pattern. If you have a trade, feel free to post real or would-be entries, SL and TP levels.

David
+1 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinedIn:
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$TSLA hums for another hit at resistance; Bull keep hooves on gas, bears let up breaking

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@tradingview #tesla #tsla
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
24 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA tests overhead structures; Expecting a probable break-out; bulls remain in charge:

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@tradingview #tesla #tsla
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA punched thru wall; Expect a "Resistance-turned-Support" consolidation from here:

snapshot


@tradingview #tesla #tsla
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
greenplay 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Please post a new chart showing Fibs and levels in TSLA. The one above is way too back dated.
Reply
05 APR 2015 - update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA complete geometry; Now points to possible overhead resistance; Bears threatening:

snapshot


@tradingview #tesla #tsla
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
06 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA - As forecast: Jumps from geo completion at Point-5; Eyes validation of 1-4 Line:

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@tradingview #TSLA TSLA
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David Alcindor
Reply
06 APR 2015 - Update - Hit Geo Target:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA hit geometric target as forecast; Expect temporizing reistance at this point:

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@tradingview #TSLA #Tesla
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David Alcindor
Reply
06 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA - Expecting upper belly of geo to offer support along 2-4 Line; Bulls still at the wheel:

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@tradingview #TSLA
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David Alcindor
Reply
07 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA remains tethered to directional forecast arrows; Bulls tolerant until geo upper belly:

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@tradingview #TSLA
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
13 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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If $TSLA can't speed > 221.13, downgear to 153.57 is its next option:

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@tradingview #Tesla #TSLA @teslamotors
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
17 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA continues to unwind to the underside of the 1-4 Line; bulls beware, as bears are there ...

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#Tesla #TSLA
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David Alcindor
Reply
17 APR 2015 - ADDENDUM ... 8-Hour Chart:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$TSLA: Larger view ... Predictive analysis/forecasting model eyes potential bearish reversal:

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#teslamotors #tesla
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply