timwest

Tesla Motors -TSLA -Daily - Almost back to Last EPS level

NASDAQ:TSLA   TESLA INC
388 2 8
HERE'S MY UNADULTERATED FORECAST FOR Tesla:

I believe that there is a justifiable reason why you would expect the market to respond to the TSLA             earnings report after the close today in the following manner. The market has a significant number of professional short sellers who are eager to break the stock and make it look bad and to trigger stop loss orders and therefore get sell orders to trip and lead to a contagion-type of decline. This is true of any stock where there is a concentrated short position as a percentage of the float.

So, the lower volumes in after-market trading allow for TSLA             to trade much lower than would be possible when every market participant was available to trade. The sister company SolarCity             is also reporting after the close today ( SCTY             ). There are 150 companies reporting earnings after the close today. It is a busy day.

AFTER whatever action we see in Tesla             on the downside, I would look for price recovery because it is my contention that the market is waiting for the Model-X to ramp up production and sales and given that there have been production disruptions and a general lack of Model-S momentum. I think this is a big opportunity for some clarity on the back-orders for the Model-X and a confirmation of manufacturing costs.

So, for me, I am looking for any information on the Model-X to determine how strong TSLA             shares will be. If the stock trades down on Model-S sales and inventory numbers, then I will not be concerned and will use that as a buying opportunity.

The street expectations are a bit muted for TSLA             this earnings report given lower implied volatility of the straddle (9% for the 230 straddle). In the past, this was 12%-13% in previous earnings releases.

Stay tuned for 4:15PM EST today.

Tim 2:34PM EST
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If you were fast on the trigger, there was a drop to $217 and a rebound to $247 inside of 5 minutes. The delay in Model-X was somewhat offset by a speed-up in the Gigafactory battery production schedule. So, all in all, seemingly good. Awaiting to read the analysts upgrades and downgrades today and for the next week.
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The $204-$199 previous KEY LEVELS are a reference point. I think there is a reason to expect those levels to be tested this afternoon. I would look for fireworks initially on the downside. This is just my guess.
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