Now that the Battery Day is behind, and the hype is diminished, Tesla might be forming a reversal pattern with a mid-term target of $300. With this prospect, we can open a short position at $415 which is around upper line of a reversal pattern triangle. Until price reaches that level, we can use a short-term opportunity to open a long position at $380 as the price touches MA200 second time and is currently in oversold area (see RSI).
Trade closed: target reached
⋅
Closed LP as it's reached the target $415.
Comment
⋅
With the LP target reached, we can wait for RSI to climb into overbought area to open a short position which would be around $430 with a target at $360 level. Plan B is to wait for a price to break $400 level support and open short from that level with the same target.
Comment
⋅
I have incorrectly mentioned a symmetric triangle to be a reversal pattern while it's a continuation pattern instead. However it doesn't change our set up. Now the price hitting $450 level, we might see a pull back to triangle area.
I feel like there is an outside chance for good Q3 delivery numbers and that would push it upwards at the end of this triangle early october. Just wanted to point that out, I may buy a straddle on it next week sometime
AATONY
⋅
@aaronsmth5, thank you for your insight. I reckon there has to be a good fundamental data to push the price over $420, otherwise it will move further down from that point. In my opinion, going LP on Q3 expectations is not safe from current levels. I would consider opening longs at least from $300-$310 level instead.
aaronsmth5
⋅
@AATONY, I personally agree with all your comments and do agree with your chart analysis.....just wanted to point out the time frame of Q3 delivery numbers being announced right about when your triangle has its peak...so it is conceivable that it could continue up in the short term. I will not be buying or going long on any TSLA positions until it comes back down closer to it's moving averages. Such as the 300 level like you pointed out.
Thanks for the analysis though, I will be scalping some quick trades using this triangle pattern's resistance/support