Tesla is probably the most prominent stock in the last 12-18 months, surging about 2,000 percent from its peak to trough. But now it may be at risk as sentiment pivots from "new economy" stocks to "old economy" stocks.
This chart compares TSLA’s relative strength to the SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF. (TSLA is now the #2 holding in the sector behind Amazon.com.) It shows how the electric-car maker is starting to lag the fund after a long period of outperformance. AMZN has been lagging even longer.
In their places, the sector’s top performers in the last week are now the beaten-down reopening stocks like Carnival (+29%), Royal Caribbean (+29%) and Norwegian Cruise Line (+24%). This illustrates the kind of rotation underway as capital returns to more traditional companies.
Two other chart features stand out with TSLA. First, it’s breaking the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). It’s managed to hold this line several times in the last year. But will that remain true at a time when bond yields are spiking higher?
Second, notice how TSLA made a new all-time high over $900 on January 25. Also notice how MACD was already falling – a classic case of bearish divergence. That's another potential sign that the blistering rally has cooled.
Finally, it’s worth remembering TSLA’s history. It rallied 670 percent between March 2013 and September 2014, and then languished for the next five years. TSLA’s current run is a similar (slightly shorter) length. Is it time for another pause?
The same might be applied to solar energy, which is also under pressure on the heels of a 400 percent run since March 2020.
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Current price can be supported only if TSLA will have revenues in Mars. Probes where sent with rockets. Hope there are enough martians to buy brand new teslas :)
TSLA is 3 times Toyota market cap. Toyota owns almost 10% of new car sales.
Bearypatch
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$450 incoming
Bearypatch
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@tradinghandhall, dont see much support until it gets in that range, beginning of the tech bubble
HenO1424
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Keep dreaming
ChristinaKrechel
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Good work
thedowjones_
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A lot of new EV competitors that no one priced in. First mover does not mean the best.
Kingsalah87
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@thedowjones_, I disagree. competition is good to speed up infrastructure thus helping Tesla accelerate taking over market share
tanasta2
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@thedowjones_, It is not about competition. Even without competitors, Tesla is still way overvalued. Imagine generating 10 times less car sales than Toyota yet has three times the market cap. I have no doubt that Tesla will be a leader in EV. But the pricing now is stupid