Now that GM has cut back forecasts for the Volt, this may free up some attention for TSLA and its hot new electric car model coming out this year. The world may be saying that electric cars aren't for everyone, yet, but it appears that stockholders are steadily stepping up to the bar and loading up on shares. Time will tell if they can make a profit and deliver a reliable product, but for now it appears worth watching. I think that selling the $30 strike puts going out 6 months makes sense. I also think buying on a dip to $32-$31-$30 with a stop about $2 under your average cost would make sense also. Note how the stock has gotten "quiet" up here at this high compared to all the other spikes-down from up here. Cheers. Tim
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timwest
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In the interest of disclosure - I sold put contracts in April that give me an entry price of $27.70 as long as the stock is under $33 by September.
timwest
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Well - this stock is going to teach a lot of people to not use stops. That's what happens in markets, I've found, is that they do teach people over time to break any pattern of rules. On a positive note, the "SUPPORT RISING OVER TIME" in Tesla is holding true as the fears about the overall economy have dropped the price of GM and Ford shares down dramatically and taken Tesla down with it. With the earlier than September forecast for deliveries of their new sedan, now slated for June 22, and a "buy" rating at Maxim Group today, have combined to deliver a pop back up. Here's hoping their product is amazing so that we can ride a 10-bagger from current levels over the next 3-5 years. Cheers. Tim 9:45AM EST, May 22, 2012
timwest
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I think the breakout today on decent volume will draw a TON of attention to Tesla. A brokerage upgraded the stock based on activity seen at the factory/corporate HQ. The technical action at $35-$33 was the signal that something meaningful had changed with TSLA shares... the fact that sellers didn't come out of the woodwork and pound the stock back down was a sign indeed that buyers were stepping up and accumulating shares. It's too bad my "guess" for price action didn't pan out "as forecast"... but hopefully the news is trending enough to still warrant sizable long term upside potential from this massive base formation.
charttrader
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Tim, what is your target for this idea? I generally agree with you and made quite a good trade on TSLA: tradingview.com/v/3gJ9jSsf/. Although i closed my position because the company's free cash flow has never been positive and their cars are too expensive.
timwest
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Good question about a target. I will post one when I can. Sorry to answer that way. I think that if I get a good entry on the stock, then the target will be based upon subsequent price action. This is a unique setup. The typical target would be generated by measuring price ranges and projecting up. I'm so focused on the gently rising internal support at $30. To force a target: The recent trading range-bound action implies $37 would be a decent upside target (using about 5 times the recent average daily range away from the current price). As for fundamentals - I'm not too concerned about free cash flow at this point in their development. The CEO is exceptionally brilliant and talented, so it is just a matter of seeing if he can get some results.