There is a lot of information in a chart to digest and I wanted to put up a technical chart first before showing you the fundamentals, which is what I actually look at first. Why fundamentals first? Because I find it helps me sleep at night when I know what is going on under the surface of the stock price. I like to know who is buying and for what reasons and who is selling and for what reasons. I think rational markets involve rational participants and when everyone is doing their homework, it makes for a better marketplace.
Well, I'll make another post on the fundamentals to show revenues, market cap as a function of revenues (Price:Sales Ratio), Profit Margin, Free Cash Flow, etc. But for now, here's the stock price action.
TSLA has had four quarterly declines in a row represented by the white arrows. Meanwhile it has been in a range from $280+ to under $145 from last July through now. That's a pretty wide range but consistent with the median stock in the DJIA in terms of range.
TSLA is above the level where it reported the last 4 earnings announcements, which I find constructive. I also find that using RgMov (blue line under chart) to find "trend" is helpful. When RgMov hits a 2-month high (44-days), the trend is up. When Rgmov hits a 2-month low, the trend is down. Right now and since March, the trend is up.
What I want to see when the trend is up is for a shorter term oversold reading to give me a lower risk entry into the uptrend. I'm essentially jumping on board a train at the "next stop" if I missed the start of the trend. You can add/remove positions using CCI(11) along the way, buying dips and exiting on rallies. TSLA is coming off of 2 oversold readings in the last week or so.
You can see that TSLA is above the "highest volume" price level at $220 (see the mountain of volume on the right hand side of the chart, which is graphing the volume over the price range shown). I prefer to use "time" but "volume" will suffice for now.
There are many catalysts for TSLA at this point fundamentally, but I have to keep it technical for this one (ok: Gigafactory, Model-X production ramp, Model-3 anticipation, SolarCity merger (noted on chart)).
I have been quiet on TSLA for awhile here but have been somewhat active in the Key Hidden Levels Chatroom where you can see my comments on various stocks, indexes, commodities and currencies from time to time.
I think this is a low risk entry zone for a move to the $254 level where I see ample resistance from old earnings levels and volume. I don't see TSLA going back under $220 for a decent risk/reward ratio.
Cheers,
Tim
11:37AM EST Aug 15, 2016 228.34 last TSLA
Trade closed: stop reached
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"I don't see TSLA going back under $220".... so.... If you used a $219 stop - it was hit long ago. Trend is down now in RgMov indicator, so it will be awhile for an uptrend signal. Stay tuned in the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS CHAT ROOM.
Comments
edmunch
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Hi Tim!
What happened with TSLA?? Could it be a new Long opportunity? Do you not think that with all the car companies manufacturing electrical car would hit TSL in the future??
Thanks!
timwest
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TSLA is having a lot of growing pains. Between buying Solarcity (Solarshitty) and having some autopilot accidents (with idiot drivers not paying attention) and fears about their need to raise capital and sell new shares... the stock is on the low end of the range. Am I buying? I am. I added to my position. Am I scared. Yes. Do I love Tesla so much that I can't think straight? I don't think so. I'm objective. I bought a Tesla last week from an existing owner, so I didn't create a "sale" and my money came out of the reservation line for a Model-X and I got my $5000 back from Tesla (soon, I hope, which they had for 1.5 years interest free). I have 2 orders for the Model 3 ($2000 in deposits at Tesla, free money for them to borrow). I have to say I am showing a new legion of potential buyers about how amazing the Tesla is and in a week I have given more test drives than I did in my VW TDI Jetta in 5 years. I can't wait to show people how incredible this car is. And I have a non-performance model S, 60KW battery. I couldn't be more amazed with a car. And the price of used Teslas you can see at Cargurus.com and see for yourself. The prices plunged in the past few months, more than 30% and they are still falling. Why? Competition coming - bigger batteries are here - newer cars with even more performance - the future is now. Check out one and test drive it for yourself. Teslamotors.com and see.
ForexSignals.io
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I like your quarterly analysis style.
timwest
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Thanks - I created the MTPC (Multi-Time-Period-Charts) so you could "SEE" multiple time frames in the same chart easily. I think it helps understand a chart much better.
mazdaki
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with another tesla up in flames during a test drive... I think we will see 120 before 320 that some predicated in the past. The momentum days are over. you got to know when to hold'em and when to fold'em:) cheers!
kamisaan
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What is this RgMov indicator? I can't seem to find it in tradingview or any other web site.
timwest
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It's my own indicator, proprietary. I include it in my pack of indicators, one of which is that one. I have the earnings levels plot the way I created and designed them to show so you can see important support and resistance levels. The RgMov indicator helps determine trend through a clever observation of the way bars line up to each other, day by day.
What happened with TSLA?? Could it be a new Long opportunity? Do you not think that with all the car companies manufacturing electrical car would hit TSL in the future??
Thanks!