Good evening traders. Before I get into this, I know I'm going to get comments below that say how Tesla is revolutionary and has technology ahead of every car company out there, and how great Elon Musk is. This may all be true, but how long will it last? What has changed in 9 months to cause a price change of 180%? This stage is called euphoria and is the most dangerous part of a bubble. Here are Tesla's reported earnings.
So I ask you, the investor, is this company worth investing in when it hasn't even hit profitability records yet?
Total accounts payable (Unpaid debt)
Sept. 30, 2019 3.468B June 30, 2019 3.134B March 31, 2019 3.249B Dec. 31, 2018 3.404B Sept. 30, 2018 3.597B June 30, 2018 3.030B March 31, 2018 2.603B Dec. 31, 2017 2.390B Sept. 30, 2017 2.386B June 30, 2017 2.359B March 31, 2017 2.075B Dec. 31, 2016 1.860B Sept. 30, 2016 1.606B June 30, 2016 1.115B
With increasing debt why would a companies value increase such an extraordinary amount?
The goal of this analysis is to challenge your view on the next 'revolution' of cars, when every major car company is catching on their tail, not to be bearish on Tesla, just to be bearish.
I hope I made good use of your time today! That will conclude this Tesla analysis.
As always friends, I wish you good luck trading! And thank you for supporting me.
At this point, people don't even know the difference between investing & speculating.
1. When TSLA was 280$ I would say it was undervalued compared to its growth potential.
2. At 500$ I would say it's crazy overvalued, it has grown past the valuation for that growth.
3. And finally, the fair value would be around 360-380$ range for the current scenario.
And I expect TSLA to bleed money in the last quarter because of the following,
1. increased cost of operations from Shanghai Giga Factory
2. expenses for procurement of Land for Berling Giga Factory & other property costs
3. Yearly bonus & stocks for employes might also reduce the margin.
I feel very sad for whoever invested after 400$. Even if TSLA has a slight miss in EPS the stock will drop like a stone.
Leocryptowizard
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man no idea what crack they do honestly the drop is gonna be like bynd or roku
MSWr
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"So I ask you, the investor, is this company worth investing in when it hasn't even hit profitability records yet?" - Yes
"every major car company is catching on their tai" - Wrong. Not even close.
demoxbt
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@MSWr in my view, a company can only be ahead of the game for so long, before the tech is passed to other competitors. It’s more or less investing into something that degenerates money, and I don’t see sense in that.
sushi816
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@TheRealDemo, I have to agree this is total madness 100 point increase in 5 days. Real question is it took 5 days to gain 100 points how long will it take for a real pull back 1 month 6 month its hard to watch at this point.
BEARYBULLY
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You guys are missing the intrinsic value of Elon. The dude will never give up. Plus, China has a factory that they finished in 9 fucking months; and is the only American company that’s allowed to operate independently. China’s middle class is the total population of the United States 🇺🇸 his car is the only car that’s fully electric 2X more efficient and has the battery infrastructure to produce at scale. All the other copy cats don’t have this. Tesla produces more than half the worlds lithion ion batteries. Solar city hasn’t peaked yet 25 year roof cycle. On top of all this, Elon is the only company around thriving and growing in an industry that has stayed stagnant. Germany cars: when Europe bans combustion cars by 2030 he’s going to claim the “made in Germany” title since the 3rd 4th fifth iterations of his cars will have higher accuracy better quality, more capacity, and drives itself... He’s got the best shot.
topps1k
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@drinoman, It still takes 7 hours to charge for a 19 hour trip. There is inefficiency that make it a less attractive option no matter how good the range is. I highly doubt that oil cars will be banned either, if anything with the shale reserves the US has it will make Oil cheaper and make even less sense to use electric cars until its competitive in convenience. Tesla performed worse this last quarter than the year prior and they are still $900 million in the hole this year. Not to mention his brother just sold $22 million in stock as well as Elon gets compensation at $100 million market cap which gives incentive for him to pump and pump regardless of the reality of the numbers.
Solar city roofs take 35 years to see any return on investment. The current 10-Q shows those operations produce negative operating income.
Now do I think Tesla is worth $0, no. I would say about $360-$380 based on the numbers, but this parabolic growth is uninformed investors dumping money into it since they are unaware of what the numbers are and what they mean. Hell I am certain a lot of these buyers are fractional buyers on robin hood.
1. When TSLA was 280$ I would say it was undervalued compared to its growth potential.
2. At 500$ I would say it's crazy overvalued, it has grown past the valuation for that growth.
3. And finally, the fair value would be around 360-380$ range for the current scenario.
And I expect TSLA to bleed money in the last quarter because of the following,
1. increased cost of operations from Shanghai Giga Factory
2. expenses for procurement of Land for Berling Giga Factory & other property costs
3. Yearly bonus & stocks for employes might also reduce the margin.
I feel very sad for whoever invested after 400$. Even if TSLA has a slight miss in EPS the stock will drop like a stone.