The "Time at a Price" analysis on Tesla is suggesting that it is out of time to rally and logical longs would exit. Time is needed to build a new platform of price before any further upside is likely.
Whether or not you want to sell short here, that is understandable if you don't, it is good to know that there is a way to measure how much time a market can rally and when it is running out of time. This is the way I have found to measure time. Either way, take notice of the downtrend into the low in November had an excellent "exhausting" of various time trends that all coincided. Why does it work? I don't know. It is a pattern I found by hand plotting charts for decades. My guess: the sellers ran out of stock to sell or willingness to sell more, and when that happened Tesla rebounded and came back to life. Of course there was a lot of news around that time with the car fires and such, but it is interesting to see a technical pattern work so well, even "after the fact" as you read about it here.
Now it looks like we have the opposite situation. All of the time-counts are exhausted and the volume has burst wide-open and all the talk is about Tesla. Short term I think this is a minor negative because the stock is probably too high and likely to settle down a bit, but longer term it must be making some waves in the world auto market.
Here's an electric car rant: As a consumer of diesel for my car which gets me a mile on just over 10 cents here in the US, the thought of going a mile on substantially less is awe inspiring. When most people spend roughly $3.50 to go 17 miles, that is a monster 20 cents per mile driven. The average person needs to see a reliable, safe car that is great looking AND saves money for at least a year before it starts driving them crazy to own one. I think that craze is still building up for Tesla. And who is doing a website to show the total cost to drive a mile after a year? Remember, no oil changes for the Tesla, so right there that saves 6 trips to change the oil after every 3000 miles in a typical year. That also saves you the time of going to get your oil changed (let's call that an hour) and say that our time is worth something too. If we save 50 trips to the gasoline station at 10 minutes each, that also saves us 500 minutes a year or over 8 hours of time. If your time is worth $100 an hour, then that's a savings of $800. Ok, that's a little far-fetched. But convenience is worth something. I don't own a Tesla, but I'd sure like to. If everyone on my list of followers just sends me $1 each month, I could afford to lease a Tesla courtesy of the wonderful Tradingview website - for without Tradingview you would not be reading this.
Cheers.
Tim 9:49PM EST 2/27/2014
Whether or not you want to sell short here, that is understandable if you don't, it is good to know that there is a way to measure how much time a market can rally and when it is running out of time. This is the way I have found to measure time. Either way, take notice of the downtrend into the low in November had an excellent "exhausting" of various time trends that all coincided. Why does it work? I don't know. It is a pattern I found by hand plotting charts for decades. My guess: the sellers ran out of stock to sell or willingness to sell more, and when that happened Tesla rebounded and came back to life. Of course there was a lot of news around that time with the car fires and such, but it is interesting to see a technical pattern work so well, even "after the fact" as you read about it here.
Now it looks like we have the opposite situation. All of the time-counts are exhausted and the volume has burst wide-open and all the talk is about Tesla. Short term I think this is a minor negative because the stock is probably too high and likely to settle down a bit, but longer term it must be making some waves in the world auto market.
Here's an electric car rant: As a consumer of diesel for my car which gets me a mile on just over 10 cents here in the US, the thought of going a mile on substantially less is awe inspiring. When most people spend roughly $3.50 to go 17 miles, that is a monster 20 cents per mile driven. The average person needs to see a reliable, safe car that is great looking AND saves money for at least a year before it starts driving them crazy to own one. I think that craze is still building up for Tesla. And who is doing a website to show the total cost to drive a mile after a year? Remember, no oil changes for the Tesla, so right there that saves 6 trips to change the oil after every 3000 miles in a typical year. That also saves you the time of going to get your oil changed (let's call that an hour) and say that our time is worth something too. If we save 50 trips to the gasoline station at 10 minutes each, that also saves us 500 minutes a year or over 8 hours of time. If your time is worth $100 an hour, then that's a savings of $800. Ok, that's a little far-fetched. But convenience is worth something. I don't own a Tesla, but I'd sure like to. If everyone on my list of followers just sends me $1 each month, I could afford to lease a Tesla courtesy of the wonderful Tradingview website - for without Tradingview you would not be reading this.
Cheers.
Tim 9:49PM EST 2/27/2014
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