Final move on TSLA is coming; Going back to the longtime trend. Joining S&P TSLA will become part of this huge volatility complex. We will see a correlation between TSLA and the index. The News flow will be absorbed by real traders; Implied vol will be unable to rise as a consequence of this product ..... and call options will finally bleed.
note this chart Shows the wrong closing price: it closer at 695.
T3metrics
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How can you possibly use the march crash for that trend? You might be close, but your trendline is off. MAYBE $305 - $380.
AlexWe1992
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@tomk2020, the trendline is printed out long before the march crash. It is just an idea of mine. Maybe it will come true maybe not; but most of my calls ore quite good.
T3metrics
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@AlexWe1992, Your trend starts before the march crash, but you draw the trendline using the march bottom for the trend. I don't see how you can put this in play.
wardaK
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@tomk2020, Are you saying it will drop and hit below $400 next week or in near future? I see it go down to $550-600 before consolidation. Am I off or it is possibel? Thanks for sharing your view. :)
AlexWe1992
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@wardaK, in the future. I am actually not thinking about the timeframe right now.
It actually is very unlikelyit will hit 400 this year.
I just switched bearish with today close - 695.
@AlexWe1992, @wardaK does this mean if Tesla goes near 425 the s&p will be near 2940, maybe in February? Also I don't understand your assessment on volatility, if you could kindly elaborate. Thanks!
AlexWe1992
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@tfinavia,
Tesla was going up on implied volatility (IV); driven by speculative call buying on TSLA.
Now it is not as simple anymore. Volatility construct/net, is the options on S&P 500.
Implied volatility will be unable to rise further.
So I am quiet sure the TSLA trend will reverse.
I am not sure on the effect on the S&P 500; probably will have a negative impact because TSLA is so big. But who knows how far they can drive apple etc.
tfinavia
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@AlexWe1992, thanks a bunch. Tsla weekly has negative triple divergence on rsi, mfi, tsi. It'll eventually go near 200 weekly ma. JP morgan has a one year target of 90 on it. If we can figure its relation and price mapping to spx then it'll be a lot easier to trade on volatility products for big bucks. It was real easy and perfect during March swoon.