93 5 2
no accumulation STILL

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Great observations on the chart. However, this one reminds me of other hip trendy Companies like Krispie Creme originally and their original irrational exhuberent action. Just don't know how to X factor in having a billionaire visionary owner in addition. He and a few Saudi princes, the Nouveau riche that like to be involved in trendy products, etc. can continue to push it at inflection points and shake out the shorts. They have the $ to push it where they will. Just have to get on the right side of them. The fundamentals, technicals, and short interest work to their advantage in stocks like this. Rational people put on shorts and puts...they suck them in and squeeze them. Good example of "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Having said that, given the global risks in the near future I'll be eyeing the Dec puts...say 230 ish. Thanks for your posts.
timwest PRO chartmojo
I would put Tesla in the category of Microsoft in the late 1980's-early 1990's for the following reasons: #1. Microsoft made computers easier to use (and fun), as Tesla makes cars easier to use (and fun). #2. Quirky, smart CEO, Gates and Musk. #3. Global Market for their technologies, check. #4. Huge valuation relative to revenues, MSFT was expensive all the way up. #5. Massive growth ahead, but can they contain competition?

To add to #1: Tesla makes cars cheaper to maintain (fewer trips to the gas station (err-no trips), no safety inspections, no exhaust inspection, no oil changes, software updates instead of long hours at the service department of a crappy dealership)....

To add to #4: Along with huge valuation comes market volatility - MSFT had 13 sizable corrections of 40% or more and had a PSR of 10 for much of the time. Tesla has the same problem. Do you personally know of anyone who held MSFT shares from 1988 until today? Why do you think that is the case? Because it is hard to hold on to a winner. It's easier for people to not own MSFT, one of the best performing stocks in the last 25 years because of psychological framing issues.

Thanks for your reply chartmojo - Keep the good comments coming. Tim
It will be really interesting to see how it plays out when volume picks up this next month. Lately when the price action has arrived at an inflection point it looks like a few big players through a couple M. Makers let it retrace down just enough to put in a lower high to pull in more shorts by flashing big bid and asks on level two when needed then flushing out the shorts driving it higher. That won't be easy to do as volume increases. I love the car, the concept, the CEO and hope the company and technology is a huge success...I May we all catch the short when and if the stock sync's up with reality. I'de be really interested to see what you think of the ICPT chart Tim.
Have you looked at other measures of "accumulation"? OBV isn't scary bearish looking. Accum/Dist might be calculating things differently. The short interest is a key factor in TSLA too. As volume dries up, the shorts might have parameters that require them to buy stock back in based on position size relative to average volume. When there is a big short interest, there is always the chance of a lot of games behind the scenes.
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