On the 15-minute chart, TSLA has been in a downtrend and for about one week, a correction
has been underway. Based on a Fibonacci analysis of the downtrend and and its retracement,
I do not believe that TSLA will breakthrough the fib level zone. The zero-lag MACD is showing
bearish divergence from the price action. In that consideration, I have held my put options
through this correction suffering unrealized losses but now look forward to another leg down.
Musk's recent court ruling nullifying his compensation package in federal court lends a bearish
perspective as does his distractions with the brain implant company which now has its first
patient ( FDA approved) and of course the space and tunnel companies. ( Autism and ADHD
can be a blessing and a curse at the same time - IMO) I am long LCID given its Saudi Arabian
support and growing production schedules supported by the SA plant. For now I am content
to short TSLA until the Meusk drama settles down and the watch to see if price lowering will
expand demand numbers et cetera.
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Either TSLA went down today on its own with the Musk drama continuing or it got dragged down with tech earnings disappointments. QQQ maybe topped out for now and looking to correct in the short term. Holding position. Tempted to add another put if I do it will be for September 24 @ $180. Does anybody have an opinion on that?
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More unrealized profit today as TSLA is sliding. The news is Musk is calling for a shareholder vote to move the incorporation of the company from Delaware to Texas more likely the shareholders will overwhelmingly vote for TX ( the home state of Gov Abbott) over DE ( the home state of Joe Biden) and time will tell if the CEO's compensation package gets repaired to comply with a court ruling.
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Price benefitted today from the recent damage control and the general market recovery from a bad day. Holding no adds.Long view patience.
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TSLA finishes out the week with more trimming of the market cap. Holding full position no partial closures to realize profit yet. C. Woods is buying her pockets are deep for sure.
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Linked here is the one minute chart mark up with the projected trade for Monday the 5th depending on the premarket and general market- given the general market was up big and reversion to the mean expecting a fall and taking TSLA with it so range of 187 to 183 ( 2% +/-)
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TSLA on 15 minute chart is currently range-bound between support trendline and a Fibonacci zone. As before for day trading purposes I see a trend down from current level to 183 and then a reversal to a trend up into the Fibonacci zone about 188-190 I intend to trade it both ways - see this link
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TSLA fell well beyond my 183 target. Closing 5% of my puts to take that profit off the position. Expecting a bounce may get one OTM call expiring 2/16 strike $190
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TSLA fell in concert with the general market a good demonstration of the value in following the relative strength of an instrument compared with the market at large and following NQ futures premarket.
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Resistance for any bounce upside is now 183 at the prior support line and higher resistance at 191- so call option targets $190. large number of put options running with various expirations between now and January 25.
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TSLA fell today and then recovered. The combination of a put option for $ 175 expiring 2/9 and then switching up at 10:55 for a call option OTM at $183, yielded 10X= 1000% in 5 hours of trading. Right now on the one minute chart linked here price is in a descending parallel channel and currently at the upper boundary ofthe channel. The setup right now is short with a stop loss of $1-1.5 targets are first the pivot low of today at 175.25 then 172 at the bottom of the channel and a runner for a channel break which will occur if there is more bad news or a fade in the general market. If a trader is into research, find the timeline of TSLA recalls, battery issues and trade-in values ( lack of depreciation) and whether they are holding up. see this link
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TSLA popped in an upside correction. Two OTM puts striking $175 from a current price of 185 got a better price on the jump.
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Barron's · 2024/02/13 22:30 GMT-07:00 Al Root
Tesla stock has been having a terrible start to the new year. Figuring out what has been driving shares can be difficult for investors. Figuring out why the shares have declined so much is a relatively easy task.
The answer lies in the wisdom of crowds. Look at Wall Street earnings estimates. They are the numerical reflection of all the news impacting any company -- Tesla included.
Coming into Wednesday, Tesla stock has fallen 26% this year while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have both risen about 4%. It's the worst start for Tesla shares since 2016 when they dropped almost 40% over a similar span to start that year.
The drop this year is steep, but the size of it makes a lot of sense. The current consensus call for Tesla's 2024 earnings per share is about $3.08, according to FactSet. The estimate started the year at about $3.84. Estimates have come down about 20%. The fall closely mirrors what Tesla stock has done within a few percentage points.
Looking back to October -- just before Tesla stock dropped 9.3% after the electric-vehicle company reported third-quarter earnings -- Wall Street's earnings estimate for 2024 was roughly $4.50 a share. The estimate is down about 30% since then. Tesla stock has fallen about 24% over the same span.
Analysts don't change just one estimate at a time. Wall Street's 2025 earnings estimates are down as well, roughly 20% lower since the start of the year. Taking a longer view, 2025 estimates peaked north of $8 a share in December 2022. They are down 50% since then to $4.23 a share. Tesla stock has fallen 55% from its all-time closing high of just under $410 a share reached in November 2021.
Estimate revisions are a useful tool for investors to check if stock moves make sense. When they line up -- as they have with Tesla lately -- it's a sign that investors are worried about company fundamentals. When revisions and the stock moves don't line up, it's a signal that something else is on investors' minds.
Remember Twitter? Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that he had made a bid for Twitter in April 2022. From that tweet, through the end of that year, Tesla stock dropped some 60%. Wall Street's estimates for 2023 earnings -- stocks always trade on future earnings -- rose from about $4.68 to $5.59 a share over the same span.
The divergence shows that Musk's Twitter distraction bothered Tesla investors. After those fears faded, Tesla stock doubled in 2023 despite vehicle price cuts and rising interest rates.
To be sure, estimate revisions can't do everything for investors. They can't tell them exactly what is going on at a company. There are many reasons Tesla's earnings estimates have been coming down. For starters, there are those price cuts that have hurt profit margins. And those higher interest rates have made all cars more expensive for buyers. There also is more EV competition around the globe and Tesla doesn't look like it will have a lower-priced model that can help expand its addressable market until 2025.
Those are some of the headwinds the company faces. Those headwinds have been evaluated by more than 40 analysts, resulting in lower earnings estimates. Investors have reacted to those reduced estimates by sending Tesla stock lower.
On a very basic level, that's how the stock market is supposed to work.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
@paulase123, For targets I look to the weekly chart here and see the pivot lows of January 23 and May 23 I have drawn horizontal lines. I actually follow the selected options chart more closely. As to stock share price I am looking at $ 165 as the target. TSLA could make some bullish corrections along the way. see this link
AwesomeAvani
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@paulase123, also if you are playing on a shorter trade duration see this link as it shows my analysis and so how I am playing this at the moment I have added text boxes to the chart
AwesomeAvani
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@paulase123, also notice on the idea that my target in the text box on the puts is $ 175; my target is actually a bit lower than that as you can see on this other reply all based on pivots low from early last year on the weekly chart :)
AwesomeAvani
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news.bloomberglaw.com/litigation/elon-musks-55-billion-tesla-pay-package-voided-by-judge This has obvious implications for TSLA shareholders for those who are traders of it like myself, it will likely increase price action and volatility and make for good trading moving forward. Musk will keep his private companies private ongoing unless he can structure his compensation to suit his time and effort
I will take a large position in an IPO if it ever happens. Musk can self-fund this for years however until his leverage is extreme. If it has a successful clinical trial, the value achievable in the long term will be potentially greater than TSLA given the burden of stroke patients, paraplegics, and those with neurodegenerative disorders. While I am not an analyst by any stretch with my background in medicine and engineering if this company is ever opened up to public ownership, the upside is most extreme.
ironmanschultz
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Good call I thought it would go up first then down. Shorted at 4am rode it down buyback on the crossing of TSI and bought shares up and sold at peak. Waiting for next TSI crossing to short.