timwest

Tesla Motors - TSLA - Daily - Key Level Halts the Decline

NASDAQ:TSLA   TESLA MTRS INC
639 17 8
I've been trying to comment as usefully as possible in Tesla             . When it is oversold it has looked like a buy, but then I realized it was going down on falling gasoline prices, which made me look for lower levels of support and valuation levels to buy shares. I didn't short the stock , but should have.

There are lows from November 2013 and January 2014 where the PSR             was lower at 8.5 and 8.7. Those numbers are adjusted after Tesla             reports earnings and are back-dated, so you'd have to know what sales are going to be (probably up 20% or more at least) to know what the current PSR             is going to be, when we look back at it from the future.

Either way, TSLA             is down 87 pts or 30% from the high when it hit the low today at 204.27 and perhaps the shorts are covering here, which would explain the bounce. But what is interesting is that the "key levels of support" that I have found nailed the bottom of the decline today and have provided very useful references for price action for quite some time. 204.5 and 198.3 are the "key levels" of support and 229 - 237 are the key levels of resistance where you will find sellers.

Any positive news on the Model-X and Tesla             could move up to the 240-260 area. I'm a buyer on weakness to key levels where the price range contracts. Stay tuned.

Tim 2:12PM EST 12/9/2014 TSLA             215.19 last
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mazdaki PRO
2 years ago
Nice work, the sell off was all across the tech sector and now the buy is now all across the tech sector. I have seen you looking into BABA. Do you have any opinion on that stock. And I am surprised that you are not in that stock.
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MarvinMartian
2 years ago
What's your thoughts on the head and shoulders?
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timwest PRO MarvinMartian
2 years ago
Thanks for asking Marvin. I think the potential reversal pattern (aka - "head and shoulders") is something I will try to trade by picking a bottom from it, rather than trying to sell short from it. I'll just give it more time to develop. The trend line is a key component of psychology here, crude oil is a big component of psychology here too. I like when there are other setups to call it a H&S pattern. I've seen the various posts calling it a H&S top, but that's not how I want to label it. I'm happy to just keep watching it and seeing how it acts relative to news, competition and relative to other auto stocks.
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timwest PRO timwest
2 years ago
What I mean by "other setups": a clear pattern. I think TSLA will just continue to fool the majority of traders. If I can just figure out what the majority think, then I want to be on the opposite side of that trade for awhile in TSLA until it can grow into its valuation. The stock will most likely just chop back and forth for another year or two from 150-300 just to confound as many people as possible.
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MarvinMartian timwest
2 years ago
Thanks for the analysis.

My friend was trying to say TSLA would only continue to fall vs OIL falling. I told him, even a sustained low oil price leading to longer term low gas prices will put a damper on new car technology.

But an overlay of Crude vs TSLA, doesn't show any close associations. Unless the current drop is related.
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timwest PRO MarvinMartian
2 years ago
I posted a chart of TSLA vs Crude and there is a very good correlation. I pointed out the same in that chart about two weeks ago.
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MarvinMartian timwest
2 years ago
Did you see lowest bounce of TSLA came 24 hrs after lowest of USOIL?
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timwest PRO MarvinMartian
2 years ago
Good teamwork. It does help to have stable to rising crude oil (USOIL) for TSLA to rise.
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tim what's the PSR indicator you're showing
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timwest PRO Gordon_princess_Gecko
2 years ago
PSR = Price Sales Ratio = It's available in the indicators menu. Search for "price sales". It is the ratio between the valuation of the company to the gross revenues of the company. It is a better way to look at valuation than P/E (Price/Earnings) because earnings are highly variable and sales are more stable. Sales X Margins = Earnings, so I find it is better to have understanding of how the earnings are derived, from sales growth or from margins expanding.
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2use
2 years ago
Did you see 204 as a buying level or waiting for 198?
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timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
Thanks for the question 2use. I just buy across a range of times and prices. Tesla is volatile and I like to spread the entry around to at least 5 prices. Any of the key levels are good.
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timwest PRO
2 years ago
TSLA didn't give us a "price range contraction" but at least the "key levels" held with enough margin of error. If you use at least 2 average true ranges from your entry (I recommend 3), then you will have a great profit at this point.
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Ghostrider7 timwest
2 years ago
Tim is that what you use on an average for a stop loss (3 ATR)?
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timwest PRO Ghostrider7
2 years ago
Yes. I use 3 ATR's. My ATR(11) - 11 days is a good number of days to use. It is half of a month, which is 22 days. True ranges are key as they include the gap from overnight action.
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Ghostrider7 timwest
2 years ago
OK thank you.
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AYosof
2 years ago
Do you think it will go up from here or it will break it?
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