Since the long from this analysis (click image to get there): played out nicely, I figured I'd create a fresh analysis for the current view.
Zoomed in image:
Most immediate bullish view would have us close to finishing the C-wave of a flat correction before continuing higher. Getting the placement of wave 3/4 of that C-wave right is a bit tricky - we could already be in wave 5 or just finishing wave 3.
230$ and below is the zone of interest, possibly closing the gap around 225$. (Always a possibility to have a frontrun)
Alternative:
I can see ways to count it as an impulse or a diag with a finish at the 265$ top, which would make the current move just the A-wave. For the bearish possibility (compare below) you could even count the move up as a zigzag. Either way, for the time being it looks close to finishing an impulse to the downside.
Macro views, which I've shared in the previous analysis linked at the top:
Overall bullish:
a)
b)
Midterm bullish:
Overall/Midterm Bearish:
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That's one way to break a support, just straight gap through it. Immediate retest from below to confirm it as resistance and further down.
Around 215$ is a bit of a last hold to keep some stronger conviction in the bull. I would've prefered not to lose 225$ though. At this point the previously shown overall/midterm bearish possibility gained a decent amount of likelihood.
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And so the bearish possibility became the primary with the assumption of a leading diag to the downside.
Depending on how to count it this might already be the wave 5 or just wave A of wave 5.