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UnknownUnicorn5511258
Dec 23, 2020 5:52 PM

Short TTD for a Bearish Bagger Short

NASDAQ:TTD1D
The Trade Desk, Inc.NASDAQ

Description

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It's trading in the 900s.

It was trading at least 500 points below here post-crisis.

First bear-bagger of the season has arrived.


NASDAQ:TTD
FWB:NDX
AMEX:IWM

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Just gonna go ahead and say buy a few JMIA puts before the close as well.

45 bucks is an even bigger joke than the thing presented above.

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Taking half by EOD. Theres a reasonable chance that no bounce comes and this just rips down to 500s.

Reason being is that the markets been green thus far. When it turns red, this will collapse.

Thus, im keeping half til EOW. If it bounces on me, ill just take my profits from the first half and hammer it down for certain bagz.

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Im not gonna recommend anyone do this if it costs them more than 0.5% of their portfolio, but I just launched some puts (790) expiring today.

Again, not more than 0.5% because its very likely going to miss.

The EV is extremely favorable, though, given the circumstances.

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Should this break down this afternoon, take half out around 734 and the other half around 713.

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Updated Projections:

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invst.ly/tb8-v

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Firing second bullet now - 720, 1/15.

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Holding. Ill get somewhat more alert if it crosses 820 today.

Otherwise, huge move down incoming, IMO.

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Might be the best looking short setup ive seen since Jan 2020.

Im a bit cautious for this reason, but if this spade's a spade, its gonna book a 200+ point drop by eow.

That is sincerely absurd.

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Could see a ridiculous type of move down this week. Would take a short here. Its expensive to buy puts, but it is likely worth it.

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Trade This:

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Sheesh, it will be pathetic if I miss the second short opp given that it is the entire impetus for the play in the first place.

Best believe I'm shorting this if it isn't crushed too badly premarket. Will be sick in the head if this is sub-750.
Trend AnalysisChart PatternsFundamental Analysisshortthedesk
Comments
kdshah010780
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Great job. What do you think would be a good bounce back price? Thank you.
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@kdshah010780, so the timing here looks so perfect that the market may go red as soon as TTD tries to bounce. In this case, the bounce would be short-live/non-existent and then its down to 770, 650, etc.

If the market stays flat or goes higher (less likely), then Id say bounce could be as high 899. Its either there, or a few points below, around 895.

If you see 890, wait a bit to make sure it fails to break 895 and then id say go ahead launch with everything ya got cause thing is heading for bearish bagville.
kdshah010780
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@Perma_Pig, WOW, thank you so much. I was holding a call option and saw your post last night. Couldn't exit today. First thing tomorrow morning. Thank you for the help buddy. Appreciate it.
Do you mind me asking what analysis/Chart patterns are you using here? Thank you.
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@kdshah010780, no problem at all. in this case, its just tape reading and experience with this particular stock. the price points are just general levels of support and resistance from the move up.

unfortunately theres no secret technical sauce for this play
kdshah010780
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@Perma_Pig, thank you so much. I am learning and appreciate your feed back.
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@kdshah010780, anytime
awisecrackin
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@Perma_Pig wow. can we PM for a few quick questions? I am in this for the long haul but not sure on bigger factors. I have questions on if my thought process and philosophy can withstand.
high respect for you
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@awisecrackin, thanks! yes - dm me after close. happy to chat
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@awisecrackin, meaantime, may want to keep an eye on this one into the close. could be a very interesting last hour.
icoland
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looks like this was a master plan or a plan by a master; as it seems to have played out :) good job. BTW what MA lines are those 7 lines...?
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