Ramp angle is flattening since March, which is a great sign and matches almost exactly to the yellow ramp angle before the spike in March (I copied it over directly).
Lol - Complainer in Chief definitely got me:-))) But now to business - the resemblance is obvous and we all know we are due for a correction / dive. But I am getting very disillusioned - with FED rumping up more and more unbelievable and unprecedented intervention - and depressed. I am from a part of world where we experienced what nationalization and communism is and it scares me to watch this in the US.
ProfitHarvest
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@Diaana, All my outside data points suggesting a high chance of a crash this month aside...
This idea of mine probably gives me the most confidence in my short position B)
SPX Exactly on 5 Year Trendline... About to Tip!
ProfitHarvest
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@ProfitHarvest, It can barely hold above the 5 year trendline and crash down below it twice already.
It exactly bounced right off and propelled away from that line this time.
What goes up and can't go up any further must fall.
Diaana
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@ProfitHarvest, I know. I follow your work and also for other reasons I expect correction (talking about stocks to GDP ratio for example etc) but it will take longer than we thought I am afraid. And for the time being I probably join the crowd with just some money to gamble. I took some profits from TVIX on Thursday and Friday but I still hold quite a lot of them... Tonight REPO is already over and futures didnt skyrocket so maybe it wont moon and we will surprised. I am so depresed I am thinking about just holding some LQD for a while as a hedge because that is bound to go up. Any nice supportive words?? :-))
ProfitHarvest
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@Diaana, If you can't take the heat, get out the kitchen!
J/k B).
Trading is certainly not for the feint of heart. And there is no place for emotion... only logic and data.
I'm a cocky mfer because I put in the work to understand the big picture from all possible angles and have collected dozens of data points and varying strategies and theories, all pointing to a crash this month.
I put my short bet at 95% chance of playing out and am perfectly content knowing there's a 5% chance my bet fails and I lose some money. I understand the value I got in at and love the risk/reward setup.
All those factors help be sleep peacefully every night and remove my emotion from the day to day swings.
boeroboy
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It sure feels right but so many variables. All of this happens during an election year in the US and the administration is maxing out all the credit cards to save face. I predict major correction either soon or the day after US elections in November regardless of who wins.
ProfitHarvest
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@boeroboy, Lookin like double bottom June/July and August (first one leaning 2400, second leaning 2100), will def pump from there through election and then yea we have a shot at SPX 1600 after election.
Gonna be a supersized 1 year long megaphone pattern man... will be nuts.
WorldEconomics
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@boeroboy, it’s not a correction. It’s capitulation. The world is heading into a geopolitical storm like never before