I guess lets wait for next week and see if I'm right.
So far I had expected it to raise a lot higher by now. I think by ramp projection is a week or two early maybe but I still think we've seen the bottom until we cross the red-line at this point.
Not much to do but wait. I'm loaded, plenty of room if it spikes to 3200 too. Probably worst case before crash, if somehow people can swing another upwave amidst the shitstorm of economic news dropping next week.
Good luck bulls... I say good luck.
TVIX is not just a bet on a market crash, but the side hedge is volatility and no way next week will be smooth.
Worst GDP on record. Worst unemployment on record. Most debt on record. Riots, looting... crashing Chicago PMI, missed consumer sentiment.. I mean, aside from Fed Reserve heroine, there is NOTHING keeping this market from a massive sell off.
@ProfitHarvest Hey I just wanted to thank you for your in-depth analyses on TVIX and SPX over the last month. I've been following your posts and comments for some time now and completely agree with your thought process. Yeah, so, maybe you were a little early. But I too thought we would've dropped like a rock by now. We're close! VIX hasn't been dropping % in correlation with SPX up...
Yea I aint too worried about being a bit early to the party, better prepared than sorry.
Yea these VIX and TVIX SPX divergences are signaling SELL stronger and stronger with each passing day.
My TVIX bottom call at $138 last Tuesday still holding beautifully.
farmerisland
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@ProfitHarvest, I've incrementally bought in, avg 141. Been wanting to see if we'd get one last push up to 3100/3200 SPX to load some more. There's solid chance that 138 bottom would still hold
See my comment below. Already I'm feeling like my risk/reward ratio is out of whack a bit buying at $150 and wish I'd just waited for the upswing when market crash is clearer and entered at $160 or $170 instead.
If I'm planning to cash out $400+ trying to catch the bottom on a market like this within $10-$20 just seems unnecessarily ballsy haha.
But man if it plays out...
milnation
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I have read it is not good to hold these type for long term. Why are you saying to buy below $150 and sell at various target in your May 26th post?
ProfitHarvest
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@milnation, Because I expect the market to crash and TVIX to shoot up (it's inverse to the SPX).
I plan on exiting within about a month after my purchase whether at profit or loss.
These are not stocks to be traded by the inexperienced.
milnation
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@ProfitHarvest, I understand. I got in around $145 and just waiting for the VIX to jump and sell similar to the targets you have; but the FED is holding the market steady. I just wasn't sure how "long term" is defined with ETN since some only recommend holding for a day or two so I wasn't sure if I could hold for a month due it get rebalanced daily.