Probability of Profit: 47%
Max Profit: $217/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $183/contract
Break Evens: 15.83/20.17
Notes: As with a short straddle, I'll look to manage this at 25% max profit. I'm putting this on a touch early so that I don't space it out at the last moment. My ordinary go-to strategy for earnings/vol contraction plays are either a short strangle or an iron condor, but I just couldn't get the credit I wanted out of those setups with this underlying, so went with an iron fly instead.