Overnight we have had some pretty firm ISM manufacturing prints out of the states that has pushed rate futures down as the markets questions the current rhetoric around slowdowns and rate cuts. With this in mind, I am looking at this pullback as the potential bottom of wave 4, and a good chance to try a long. I have 123*175 as the 50% pullback of wave 3, so the time looks nigh. couple with this, the market looks to have completed a 5 sub wave move from the peak back down and it's all lining up.
Try and get long the futures somewhere here, but give your stops some room. Ideally you would want 4-5 points (10 ticks), so your stop doesn't get flushed on a quick nothing move. If the market starts to subsist below 123*175, then the whole structure is probably wrong and I will need to rethink it. First target should be above 125*00 and up to 125*09
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If you have a look at the hourly chart, you can see we are stuck sideways for the time being, and that could be until the next round of US data. I have taken profit because I don't want to sit in this sideways market, but I am looking for the break and I think it will be higher. If we pull back again, I will look to buy back in towards the original entry prices
Trade closed manually
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Decision time on this. I am going to leave it be. Call it a gut feel but I just don't want to be long at present. Time for a rethink on everything, so I am staying square