jangseohee

TNX, Save me Channel!

Long
CBOE:TYX   CBOE 30 YR TREASURY BOND YIELD
177 views
The dump money never learn from mistake. Once again they "BELIEVE" what the economist said around last quarter of 2013 that Fed will raise interest rate. And the investors were taken for a "Losing" ride. The 10 yrs yield fall hard and fast for 12 months until this point which i can't help but again to "see" whether my favorite TREND CHANNEL could "save" me.

While the 30 yrs yield is almost making a triple bottom!

I reckon how stocks, bonds, commodities going forward is at the mercy of this SUPPORT region IMHO

Comments

Hi Jang, can you clarify, you think rates should increase on the 10Y ?
And you believe there is a key support here?
Reply
Condition:
If after some struggling including false break down, price manages to find support and grind up slowly, chances of rate hike increase
If it breaks down below and move further south from triple support, i will forget about rate hike
but it is base on my HO
I do not want to believe UNTIL the Channel really PROVE itself again :-)
Reply
YaKa jangseohee
If I understand correctly, you will rates will go up but you want the support to hold.
Something else for you though:
They may raise rate which could change the forward outlook negatively and push rates down in the long run creating a flatter curve...
Reply
YaKa YaKa
We saw all sorts of things in the recent years so even an inverted curve close to bottom is not something that would shock me.
Reply
we are speculating :-P
Reply
k, if the support is holding, that someone must be buying keeping it from going southward because this someone knows in advance that rate will increase in time to come
your view is also possible
Reply
YaKa jangseohee
Well if you hold long term paper and you believe a recession is coming, you keep despite all local news flow as it is probably the best asset.
In a context where macro data are improving and Rates hike may be coming, you must be kept wondering: enough growth to get out of here and buy risky assets (that are kind of expensive (compared to history at least)... Not a trivial bet.
I would rather hold treasuries at this rate than the Italian BTP :)
+1 Reply
Needless to say mate treasury is considered "SAFE HEAVEN" after all
but i have a chart showing the diff between inflation protected vs non-inflation protected

But buying a note and thinking that a recession is coming could be viewed as detached matters
Reply
YaKa jangseohee
Absolutely.
Meanwhile, the DAX lost 300pts
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DAX neckline is ~8900
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