The dump money never learn from mistake. Once again they "BELIEVE" what the economist said around last quarter of 2013 that Fed will raise interest rate. And the investors were taken for a "Losing" ride. The 10 yrs yield fall hard and fast for 12 months until this point which i can't help but again to "see" whether my favorite TREND CHANNEL could "save" me.
While the 30 yrs yield is almost making a triple bottom!
I reckon how stocks, bonds, commodities going forward is at the mercy of this SUPPORT region IMHO
While the 30 yrs yield is almost making a triple bottom!
I reckon how stocks, bonds, commodities going forward is at the mercy of this SUPPORT region IMHO
And you believe there is a key support here?
If after some struggling including false break down, price manages to find support and grind up slowly, chances of rate hike increase
If it breaks down below and move further south from triple support, i will forget about rate hike
but it is base on my HO
I do not want to believe UNTIL the Channel really PROVE itself again :-)
Something else for you though:
They may raise rate which could change the forward outlook negatively and push rates down in the long run creating a flatter curve...
your view is also possible
In a context where macro data are improving and Rates hike may be coming, you must be kept wondering: enough growth to get out of here and buy risky assets (that are kind of expensive (compared to history at least)... Not a trivial bet.
I would rather hold treasuries at this rate than the Italian BTP :)
but i have a chart showing the diff between inflation protected vs non-inflation protected
But buying a note and thinking that a recession is coming could be viewed as detached matters
Meanwhile, the DAX lost 300pts