This chart studies spread between 30 year and 10 year treasury yield, and its correlation with SPY top. In 2000 and 2007, breakout of this spread marked the top of the market. So can this time be different? Let's wait until it breaks out (if ever) and then we will know.
Agreed, wait until the end of the month. Looking like a breakout at this point, however my concern is that the trend line starting from the high on 2013-03 and through 2013-11 may apply as the channel….thoughts? I have to say this was very insightful and clever analysis on your part as it dispels the notion that we need an inverted yield curve to have a recession/drawdown in the equity market.