I wanna talk about Uber!
I think this stock is attractive at this level. Here's my analysis.
My Uber thesis:
Scalable global marketplace (mobility + delivery) with very durable network effects, accelerating earnings, and high-conviction AV (autonomous vehicles) partnership upside. Uber is at a good valuation on misplaced AV disruption fears (in my view).
Fundamentals:
Economic Moat:
Powerful network effects, scale advantages, Uber One switching costs, and brand. Platform is the best aggregator for AV fleets.
Key Growth Drivers
Valuation & Intrinsic Value
Risks
AV companies going direct (mitigated by supply fragmentation); regulation/gig worker costs; macro slowdown; competition.
Sentiment
Strongly bullish among investors and on X: network + AV optionality seen as major tailwind; recent pullback viewed as buying opportunity.
What I'm doing
I'm allocating a bit above 1% of my portfolio into the stock.
Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
- Henrique Centieiro
I think this stock is attractive at this level. Here's my analysis.
My Uber thesis:
Scalable global marketplace (mobility + delivery) with very durable network effects, accelerating earnings, and high-conviction AV (autonomous vehicles) partnership upside. Uber is at a good valuation on misplaced AV disruption fears (in my view).
Fundamentals:
- TTM revenue $52B; bookings +19% in 2025 with accelerating momentum (users, trips, engagement). Revenue keeps growing religiously almost every quarter.
- Pre-tax operating profit +50% YoY; strong operating leverage and ~$10B FCF run-rate.
- Gross margins 33%, EBITDA ~12%, net ~20%. Clean balance sheet (cash $7.6B, low net debt). Gross margin is now at the best level ever.
- Market cap ~$150B at ~$73/share.
Economic Moat:
Powerful network effects, scale advantages, Uber One switching costs, and brand. Platform is the best aggregator for AV fleets.
Key Growth Drivers
- Core: Geographic/suburban expansion, delivery acceleration, new use cases (Moto), membership.
- AV: Commercial operations in 10-15+ cities by end-2026 via partnerships (Waymo, Nvidia, Rivian, VW, etc.). Uber’s hybrid model + data advantage positions it as a pick-and-shovel winner.
Valuation & Intrinsic Value
- Current 15x TTM P/E (22x NTM) is inexpensive for 15-20%+ bookings growth and 30%+ EPS growth outlook. The PE came down from 123 in 2023 to 15 now.
- Consensus price target: ~$105 (44% upside).
- Morningstar fair value: $85.
- Bull case (AV monetization): $125–200+ longer-term.
- Pershing Square says: “high-quality business… valuation is compelling” at 21x NTM.
Risks
AV companies going direct (mitigated by supply fragmentation); regulation/gig worker costs; macro slowdown; competition.
Sentiment
Strongly bullish among investors and on X: network + AV optionality seen as major tailwind; recent pullback viewed as buying opportunity.
What I'm doing
I'm allocating a bit above 1% of my portfolio into the stock.
Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
- Henrique Centieiro
Trade active
Hedge Fund Manager at Maverick Capital | Wealth Educator | 20+ yrs investing | Stocks, ETFs & Crypto alerts | Join Henrique Wealth Academy for trade alerts & indicators → skool.com/be-limitless/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Hedge Fund Manager at Maverick Capital | Wealth Educator | 20+ yrs investing | Stocks, ETFs & Crypto alerts | Join Henrique Wealth Academy for trade alerts & indicators → skool.com/be-limitless/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.