“UBS Group agrees 3.25bn rescue deal for rival Credit Suisse” reads the headlines. Time for Switzerland to bring out the bunting? Or was this one deal UBS should really have said no, not interested.
There are 10 days for the stock market to undo the largest bearish engulfing candle the monthly UBS Group chart has ever printed.
Notwithstanding the candle the highest recorded negative divergence with price action has printed. A record 9 oscillators have printed negative divergence with price action since records began.
Where is price action going? On the above monthly chart there is a projected 50% correction for share price following the rising wedge breakout and resistance confirmation.
On the 3-month chart below a Gravestone DOJI candle is printing. This really is the mother of all Gravestone DOJI candles. Why? For one it is printing under a continuation pattern following the 2007/8 banking crisis. The 2nd is the size of the candle itself, there is a huge amount of selling pressure under resistance. IF this candle confirms by the end of April, IF, then the UBS Group fails as an entity. Price action will fall to 1.90, Credit Suisse levels.
if the largest most important bank in Switzerland drops 55 - 68% there is something structurally wrong with the whole Europe financial market, and inherently the world
without_worries
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@louistran_016, That's been true since 2008. That 'thing' that is wrong with the entire financial system is summed up in one word, debt.
@MaceMaddox, What do you mean? It is a one month candle chart published 3 months ago! You will have to wait a lot longer.
The rising wedge broke out and is now back testing, perfectly normal.
MaceMaddox
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@without_worries few days ago UBD voluntary terminated Loss Protection Agreement and Public Liquidity Backstop. Huuuugeee amounts of money. Check it out… They are doing just fine
without_worries
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@MaceMaddox, Good news is a selling opportunity. Incidentally my probability indicator has recently printed a "great sell" label @ 89% probability of correction. It is unlikely to be wrong.
MaceMaddox
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*UBS
MaceMaddox
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@without_worries It is highly unlikely that the value will drop to 1.90, as initially indicated in your analysis. By the way, is the indicator you referred to the same one that forecasts the S&P 500 to attain a level of 6,000 by the middle of 2023? With all due respect, and good intentions in mind, you might want to consider reevaluating or refining your methodology
without_worries
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@MaceMaddox, Perhaps read the idea again. It is not indicated, it is stipulated upon certain conditions arising "IF this candle confirms by the end of April, IF, then the UBS Group fails as an entity.", was even written in upper case to emphasise the point. I failed.
Not many but more than a few get the S&P 500 idea to 6000 wrong. Many understand the macro idea is to open a long position until mid-2023. Few take it to mean that this is a target and time. I don't know what is more frightening, 1) people believe target & time in trading are deterministic or 2) people trade with their money in this fashion. Imagine holding an open trade to 5900, you're up almost 100% and you do not collect as the market crashes because the target was not met. Do people actually do this?
The stock market is up 12% since the S&P 500 was written. I'm very happy with my methodology thanks, I like profits.
MaceMaddox
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@without_worries Characterizing a projection of 1.90 when the actual figure stands at 20.6 is far from accurate. Similarly, proposing a transition from 3,800 to 6,000 and labeling an increase to 4,400 as a significant achievement seems rather questionable. Such assertions might be made by an individual who exhibits straightforwardness, candor, and who has accumulated profitable experience through trading with substantial leverage over the years. In that realm, specific deterministic aptitudes indeed prove crucial. Nonetheless, I comprehend your perspective of transitioning from a probabilistic mindset, where all outcomes are feasible and possibly correct. Nevertheless, in practicality, a mere one percent move in the unfavorable direction can signify the divide between financial prosperity and loss. Despite the variance in our operational approaches, I appreciate your standpoint and principles. Here's to our accord, my colleague 👍