UCO will hit the 300s again. Only debate is if it occurs faster or slower (mathematically, your 4 month time horizon would require the underlying index to rise 50% on average each month; certainly not impossible but don't hold your breath). That kind of price spike would definitely require some kind of unforeseen catalyst (supply disruptions like war in the middle east, iran shutting down the straight of hormuz, or alternatively explosive excess demand from coming back online after the coronavirus, high levels of backwardation, or a combination of something similar). In contrast, for the 5 year target, you just need the index to rise on average 2.5% a month. The reality will probably be a comfortable middle.