AMEX:UGAZ   CREDIT SUISSE NASSAU VELOCITY SHS 3XLNG NAT GAS ETN(02/02/32)
It looks to me we had started the bottoming process in UGAZ .
Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and on August 5 we broke below 11.69$ and started to recover on the next day .

The weekly chart of NatGAS last week printed a hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend. This week we have the follow and the weekly swing.

Two weeks ago UGAZ had a record volume .


And what is more interesting is the COT number of NatGas.
The numbers on 2019 July 23
The open interest is 1.310.300 .
It's quite high but I have seen higher numbers than this. There were 1.600-1.700.000 in bullish periods.
The large speculators are heavily short with 191.423 contracts. (190k long, 381k short) The commercial net long position is 160.735 which is extremely bullish , and what is more interesting is the long contract number.
The long contract number is: 642337. There was only 2 time when the long contract number was higher than this in the last 10 years:
2019.05.14. : 654.311, but this time the short contract number was quite high 609.089 so the net long commercial position was only 45.222.
2018.09.18 : 660.776, and this time the short contract number was 605.712 so the net long was only 55.064.
Look what started in 2018 September:

Natty almost doubled...

This time we have a nearly all time high in commercial long contract number and as commercials already covered many shorts (we have only 481.600 short - remember last Septemeber this number was 605.712) we have a 160.735 net long commercial long contract...

The numbers on 2019 July 30
Open interest 1.342.656 (+32.000)
Large specs long: +23.776
Large specs short: +32.138
Large specs shorts increased by 8362 contracts

Commercials:
Net long contracts increased by 5914 from 160.735 to 166.649. The blees rating is 100 what is very bullish . I have seen blees at 100 for weeks with price not moving or dropping slowly.
But.........!!!!
Long contracts: 668.966.
THIS IS ALL TIME HIGH. The commercials in the past never ever had 668.966 long contracts. And the blees rating is at bullish territory.

I’m sure the commercials know something what we don’t. If they are long with that amount of contract number I want to be with them.

The numbers on 2019 Aug 6
Open interest 1.375.410 (+32.750)
Large specs long: +118 ( Almost the same)
Large specs short: +414 (Almost the same)
Commercials:
Net long contracts increased by 1218 from 166.649 to 167.867 .

Long contracts: 668.966, increased by 14.638.
THIS IS NEW ALL TIME HIGH. Again.
They are preparing for a big rally.

Comment: We moght be starting the surge out of the ICL.
Comment: Good chance that the short squeeze is starting.
Have you already taken long position or still waitng?
Reply
@ArtFly, yes I’m long already.
Reply
@some_guy L. O. L. ! Love the enthusiasm! And love the move. Full position on UGAZ....
+4 Reply
some_guy bertcoin
+1 Reply
legit. I was looking at natgas weekly RSI lows back to 2004. If you had bought the same low we're at now, _every single time_ all the way back to 2004, youd be in for 100%+ move...every single one of those times
+1 Reply
some_guy some_guy
@some_guy, every
+1 Reply
some_guy some_guy
@some_guy, single
+1 Reply
some_guy some_guy
@some_guy, time
+1 Reply
Agree. Doubled down a few days ago to cover up my thinking the last DCL was an ICL. It's nice to see all the detail behind this price and volume action - Thanks! Will be interesting to see if the trending increase in US production mutes the next intermediate cycle and continues the general downward trend, or is able to break above the channel.
+1 Reply
Good overview
+1 Reply
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