BRENT CRUDE OIL ANALISIS – MONTHLY-DAILY (4-APR-2021)
1-Mar-2021 analysis confirms 3 key predictions:
• USD70 is a strong key psychological level. Brent briefly hit & closed at USD70 on 8-Mar and re-challenged on 15-Mar, however Brent reversed.
• Brent has established a higher low base within 200-monthly EMA.
• Support Zone 1: USD60 - USD57.40. Selling pressure stopped twice which coincides with 60.81% FR.
Emergence of shooting star & harami pattern usually signal a bearish reversal, yet both MACD and RSI are still showing positive readings.
Brent is being trapped between the flattish 20-day EMA (as pivotal resistance) &50-day EMA (strong support prohibits Brent to fall further) with bullish bias. Consolidation at the “symmetrical triangle” pattern is likely at the tail’s end as Brent is approaching the neckline and pattern apex.
Brent may able to continue its positive momentum based on followings:
a) OPEC+’s commitment to keep oil prices afloat by constraining supply to provide a good equilibrium for oil demand-supply (Note: Cautious on the long-term oil price with a possible resurgence in US oil output)
b) Timeline and efficacy of vaccine rollouts leading to aide faster recovery in economic activity and possible higher oil demand.
c) Massive under-investments on O&G capex from oil majors would lower the future supply of oil and
d) Strong economic recovery in China is expected to offer a strong support for oil prices.
This assumption could still be over-optimistic as airline travel may not fully recover at least until end- 2022.
Reiterations of the earlier bullish bias are still maintained with minor revisions:
1) USD66.79 (38.2%)
2) USD70.73 (61.8%). USD70 as key psychological level & 100% FE of 1-month view chart
3) USD77.12 (100%)
On the flipside, USD60-USD55 as support zone.
• USD70 is a strong key psychological level. Brent briefly hit & closed at USD70 on 8-Mar and re-challenged on 15-Mar, however Brent reversed.
• Brent has established a higher low base within 200-monthly EMA.
• Support Zone 1: USD60 - USD57.40. Selling pressure stopped twice which coincides with 60.81% FR.
Emergence of shooting star & harami pattern usually signal a bearish reversal, yet both MACD and RSI are still showing positive readings.
Brent is being trapped between the flattish 20-day EMA (as pivotal resistance) &50-day EMA (strong support prohibits Brent to fall further) with bullish bias. Consolidation at the “symmetrical triangle” pattern is likely at the tail’s end as Brent is approaching the neckline and pattern apex.
Brent may able to continue its positive momentum based on followings:
a) OPEC+’s commitment to keep oil prices afloat by constraining supply to provide a good equilibrium for oil demand-supply (Note: Cautious on the long-term oil price with a possible resurgence in US oil output)
b) Timeline and efficacy of vaccine rollouts leading to aide faster recovery in economic activity and possible higher oil demand.
c) Massive under-investments on O&G capex from oil majors would lower the future supply of oil and
d) Strong economic recovery in China is expected to offer a strong support for oil prices.
This assumption could still be over-optimistic as airline travel may not fully recover at least until end- 2022.
Reiterations of the earlier bullish bias are still maintained with minor revisions:
1) USD66.79 (38.2%)
2) USD70.73 (61.8%). USD70 as key psychological level & 100% FE of 1-month view chart
3) USD77.12 (100%)
On the flipside, USD60-USD55 as support zone.