Crude Oil (UKOIL) - Is the Next Expansion Phase Preparing to Launch?
Looking at the structural development of Crude Oil since the 2020 low, the Elliott Wave count suggests we are witnessing the formation of a massive long-term impulsive cycle. After completing a significant Wave (I), the market has been navigating through a corrective Wave (II) structure.
The Current Structure
The price action recently broke out of the corrective channel, which is often the first signal that the dominant trend is ready to resume. Currently, we are tracking two primary paths:
The Aggressive Scenario: A direct entry into Wave (III), characterized by a sharp and sustained increase in momentum.
The Conservative Scenario: A more complex correction (such as an Expanded Flat or Simple Zigzag) before the major upside begins.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
Pivot/Bull Market Level: 92.93 USD
Immediate High: 133.11 USD
First Major Target: 185.34 USD
Long-Term Cycle Target: 375.54 USD
The Invalidation Thesis
No analysis is complete without a “Point of Invalidation.” To maintain professional objectivity, we must respect the structural floor.
Primary Invalidation: 58.99 USD
Structural Floor: 19.59 USD
If the price breaks and holds below these levels, the current wave count must be reconsidered. Until then, the path of least resistance—from a structural perspective—remains toward the upside.
Looking at the structural development of Crude Oil since the 2020 low, the Elliott Wave count suggests we are witnessing the formation of a massive long-term impulsive cycle. After completing a significant Wave (I), the market has been navigating through a corrective Wave (II) structure.
The Current Structure
The price action recently broke out of the corrective channel, which is often the first signal that the dominant trend is ready to resume. Currently, we are tracking two primary paths:
The Aggressive Scenario: A direct entry into Wave (III), characterized by a sharp and sustained increase in momentum.
The Conservative Scenario: A more complex correction (such as an Expanded Flat or Simple Zigzag) before the major upside begins.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
Pivot/Bull Market Level: 92.93 USD
Immediate High: 133.11 USD
First Major Target: 185.34 USD
Long-Term Cycle Target: 375.54 USD
The Invalidation Thesis
No analysis is complete without a “Point of Invalidation.” To maintain professional objectivity, we must respect the structural floor.
Primary Invalidation: 58.99 USD
Structural Floor: 19.59 USD
If the price breaks and holds below these levels, the current wave count must be reconsidered. Until then, the path of least resistance—from a structural perspective—remains toward the upside.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.