[SORRY, I HAD TO REPUBLISH SO THAT BOTH CHART WOULD SHOW]
Lots of talk at the moment regarding the uncoupling of geo-political events that would have pushed price of oil further up, in contrast to the current sustained decline in price seen in both US domestic and Brent crude oils. Over-production, increased reserves, or political manipulation ... There is a taste for everyone seeking an explanation.
OIL SITS ON A MULTI-MONTH TECHNICAL SUPPORT
From the technical side of things, it appears that both UKOIL and USOIL have attained a significant price level, as they both sit on a multi-month structural support, highlighted for your visual delight in their respective charts.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL SEES LOWER LEVELS:
While this should cause a knee jerk reflex in the market, causing price to react by a reactive rally, the predictive/forecasting model continues to see lower levels as for as high probability targets, namely:
1 - A reaction to the upside is widely anticipated at this point, and while this is a probable scenario at the current structural level, I would anticipate a limited upside - Quite possibly, a reactive upsurge would help define an Elliott Wave's 4th wave, especially in UKOIL where there appears to be a 3rd wave extension screaming for a relief rally.
2 - The targets defined are of two types: One is a numerical target ("TG-1") which defines a level from which price is expected to rally in a range paced at significant Fibonacci levels, between 0.382 and 0.618. In contrast, the nominal target ("TG-Lo") defines a level from which price is expected to either retrace at a level greater than 0.618, of simply reverse, such that price would surpass the prior structural level of the preceding swing.
Feel free to post commentaries, be it fundamental or technical. These charts have been crunched so that I would be able to illustrate their span and the significant structural levels reached today. However, these are also daily timeframes, therefore, I would expect a significant amount of time to go by before any significant technical event occur. Hence, feel free to request updates on this chart (or other ones as a matter of fact).
Also, here are links to prior predictive analyses and forecasting that worked out quite well with UKOil - So far, these have lend themselves well to the predictive/forecasting model (links also available in the "Related Ideas" below):
In this UKOil, price was forecast to hit Point-5 of the Wolfe Waves before reversing to the bearish target,. It did both quite well:
In this second UKOil chart, price was forecast to turn towards its lower target. A structural high had been carved out at about 117, which helped define a stop-loss. Following a protracted sideways course and a near-challenge of that 117-level, price fell and hit the forecast target:
Great stuff, fyi Russia's budget is based o a oil price of $114 so Putin is getting smoked,,,,financial war can do more damage than a couple of nukes and is much cheaper...
4xForecaster
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Hello @dvk1970 - Very true. So is the budget for many more "non-allies". This is not just a Forex war. This is a total all-out commodities war, if we are talking about market manipulation - David
4xForecaster
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13 NOV 2014 - Update: DAILY Timeframe Loses Control; Off To WEEKLY Views:
Traders,
Since chart was developed, price reached targets on all counts: USOil and UKOil.
The USOil chart indicates that further downside exists, simply because TG-Lo as a nominal target, should have imposed a more-than 0.618-Fib retracement at the very least. In contrast, UKOil shows that price has stalled right at its respective TG-Lo. However, looking at price action in the USoil/Daily chart, failure of reversal at nominal target should drive our attention to higher-level timeframes, where interference emanates.
For this reason, I have submitted the data into a WEEKLY timeframe, looking solely at the USOil action. Following are the two newer targets:
Notice that price has risen into tight retracement patterns, suggesting that this succession of deep retracements collaborate with a larger corrective system, following a sustained bearisn impulse ("IMP", in green first in the chart, followed by a "COR< in red. The third "IMP" is conditional, and will require a dedicated bearish impulse.
Whether the entire IMP/COR/IMP system corresponds to a 5-3-5-3-5 triangular geometry remains to be determined, as this will require quite some time over this weekly view. Hence, this remains speculative, even though the geometric options are quite narrow here.
Nonetheless, looking simply at the predictive/forecasting system, irrespective of the underlying geometries, the market is dedicatedly bearish, and the following two bearish targets are now in effect, namely:
1 - TG-1 = 50.31 - 13 NOV 2014
and
2 - TG-Lo = 25.67 - 13 NOV 2014
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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07 NOV 2014 - Update:
From Twitter:
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UKOIL moves per forecast towards bearish target; Remains bearish; Target intact:
From Twitter:
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UKOIL & USOIL charts hit respective forecast targets; Relief rally with limited upside expected
@TradingView
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David Alcindor