TradeApe

Oil Monthly Analysis - Bottomed out?

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
So the 2nd large oil             crash in 10yrs just took place last year. The first one happened during the financial crisis and was the result of people expecting less demand for oil             as the economy collapsed and tons of people lost jobs. The 2nd crash was supply-lead as excess supply lead to a drop in prices.

Remember when oil             hit 90 and people said it had bottomed out? The same people who then said 80s the bottom? ;)

I think both those levels are likely long term retracement levels no matter whether the bottom is here or not.

ADX is still rising and D- is in control and way above the 20 level. Ichimoku too suggests short's the way to go. I would want D+ to tick up to consider any longer term long trades. Having said that, after a multi-month drop like this, a retracement will eventually happen.

Not really expecting us to hit lows seen during the 2008 crash, but for now my bias is somewhere between short and neutral. The longer we don't head further down, the more neutral it'll become.
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