Oil H4 Analysis - Short...but...

FX:UKOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (Brent)
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So as per my daily analysis , I'm only really after shorts below 57.75. Having said that, it's not an exacxt science, so if that level breaks I'll be paying close attention to the 59.25 level...the previous high. If I get a good short signal there, I'm going to take it despite being above 57.75.

If it breaks of course, I'm looooooooooooong until someone knocks me out because imo 70 is the next crucial resistance. It'll be a bumpy ride given the multi-month drop and frankly not a ton of fundamentals supporting much higher oil prices (for now).

But like I said, I'm still biased short quite strongly. D+ made the last high, so technically I'd go short right now. Two things still bug me though:

- ADX below 20, which means trend momentum isn't that strong. It's "close enough", but not great. Often when I ignore this, it bites me in the ass.

- D- is STILL dropping and hasn't made a new high. If the bulls are losing power, why would I go short right now???

- Tenkan above Kijun...which is a bullish sign.

So yeah, if I get a good short signal on H1 tomorrow, I'll hop into a trade. Else I might wait and see what D- does around 56.60.
I guess this just goes to show how important the 3 points listed above are. I completely underestimated the amount of Valium the bears must have swallowed!

The small short spike took place while ADX was below 20, so I should have known there wasn't enough trend momentum behind it. D- just continued to drop throughout today and the Kijun never really dropped below the Tenkan.

In the short term, I'm now more bullish, so this could quite possibly run up all the way to 60. Personally, I'll be looking for good short signals along the way because 57.50-57.75 is likely to be tested from above either way.
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