It is near impossible to following all the developments in the geopolitics and try to forecast the price of Oil but what does technical analysis suggest?
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Since the sharp fall of March 2020 it is likely that we are observing the development of a zig-zag ABC
Five waves of the first impulse A completed in July 2021
Wave B took shape of a complex Running Correction WXY finishing in November 2021
And since then we can see formation of another impulse in wave C
Waves 1 to 3 of this impulse culminating in March 2022 are quite clear which have been followed by a contracting triangle
The crux of the analysis is developing right now when the price started moving in a very choppy way
There are two alternatives in this scenario - (1) wave 4 of C has not completed yet, but then it becomes too lengthy and disproportional to the whole wave, (2) wave 5 is created by an Ending Diagonal with 3-3-3-3-3 structure
The preferred scenario is the latter where waves 1-3 have formed and we can expect correction of wave 4 to last at least until end of June, followed by the last zigzag to top the high of $138
This is quite complex scenario so it needs to be monitored against all the rules of Ending Diagonal which can also find the Educational post below.
What do you think about Brent Oil and its short term prospects? Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves.