Here on the chart we can see that the major trend, which has lasted for 6 months (beginning of 2016) has finally lost track. The trend channel is definitely broken down. Lately there was an attempt to go back to the trend channel, but seems like it lost track and the price hitting the lower trend line started going back down. I am not saying that the oil price will go down for sure, but I would say the odds in my mind is like 60% down and 40% up at this stage. We have to wait more for some more definite signals either way.