4xForecaster

Early Bullish Reversal; Wolfe Waves | $BRENT $OIL #Oil $UKOil

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
386 3 4
Friends,

Reintroducing the Wolfe Waves , we thought that a geo-political context might be of added interest here, considering the reactive pressure put on commodities in the context of the Ukraine/Russian development.


WOLFE WAVES PATTERN
- Defining The "Simple" (i.e.: non-prime) Version:

The Wolfe Waves Pattern (or "Wolfe Patter" for short) was named by Bill Wolfe , and is very similar to the 3-Drives pattern. Typically, Point-1 represents a structure-extreme (high or low), followed by a reactive Point-2 (typically isolated in a counter-structure level (here, at a structure low). What ensues is a narrowing of the channels, starting with Point-3 and Point-4. The importance of Point-3 is that it offers the defined alignment of the 1-3 Line whose projection should allow the trader to estimate quite precisely Point-5's residence, after price reacts from Point-4, while the 2-4 Line projects forward to narrow the geometry into a flag or wedge .

Note that we will focus here on the simple Wolfe Pattern, where a Point 5-prime (written as 5') will be ignored unless price transgresses Point-5 and demands the transposition of the 2-4 Line from Point-3 to define Point-5'. So, for the time being, we will differentiate the "simple" version from the "prime version" (or even the "second version", where Point 5" is defined by the 2-4 Line departing from Point-1 - Yes, it can get that complicated) by using this UK Oil             chart, as long as price remains capped at Point-5 by the 1-3-5 Line - Time will tell.

In any case, assuming that the 1-3-5 line holds at Point-5, then Point-5 becomes the point of departure from which a trader would enter a counter-trend position and aim a price action             moving downwards towards the 1-4 Line, which represents the target. In this UK Oil             chart, we have added a Fib-based floor at 94.15 as a potential target, simply to illustrate how to further increase the resolution of a potential target level, since the 1-4 Line can sometimes act as a "moving" target, as price can ricochet downwards along it.

I hope this quite review of the Wolfe Waves Pattern keeps you intrigued and interested in advanced patterns. In our own little world, we have our own proprietary geometric             patterns (The "Euclid", the "Janus", the "Great White" and the "Deep Shark" patterns), and we quite often use these as added geometric             confirmation in our predictive analyses and forecasting.

We recommend that the trader becomes aware and at ease with advanced market geometries, simply to add a layer of added confirmation before committing to a trade.

A quick other technical note here: Price seems to have come out of a bearish channel , while our predictive analysis just posted an early bullish market reversal with a potential for a 115.00 target, nearing the estimated Point-5 in this chart ... Just saying.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting


-----------------------------------------------------
Follow our forecasts, signals and analyses on Twitter
Alias: @4xForecaster
-----------------------------------------------------


Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster


CHANNELS:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
14 DEC 2014 - Update:

With a bit of delayed commitment to the downside (Point-5 was pushed out much later), oil rolled quite nice:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Brilliant!

And in EW terms, this is not the regular type of WW pattern we normally see (which showed up in EURUSD and USDCHF amongst other usd pairs, right?)
Reply
A quick update on the chart:

1 - Added momental lines in faint grey
2 - Added 4-prime (4') as the actual point of departure towards Point-5
3 - Clarification: If and when price reverses from Point-5, the target level is now the 1-4' Line, as opposed to the 1-4 line, alluded to in the initial analysis.

Here is the new chart below.

Cheers!

David Alcindor

snapshot
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
Malaysia
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Priority Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out