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Brent oil - Falling Wedge, ping pong between $40-$50 to continue

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
The daily chart clearly shows all three rising trend line have been breached and prices are now moving in a falling wedge formation.

Tuesday's move a trap?
  • We had almost 5% gain yesterday mainly driven by bullish comments by the OPEC in its monthly report. Volume chart says the major part of the gains were due to profit taking on shorts.
  • Volumes on Tuesday remained very low - well below 50-day moving average level.
  • Note, the volumes last Thursday when prices suffered a bearish break from rising trend line were on the of the highest in recent times.
The message is clear - Bulls would need a bullish break from falling wedge accompanied by a sharp rise in volumes.

Oil market rebalancing at risk?

Gaurav Sharma, an oil             market expert was on our Finance show (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZQWK2gl9N0) where he presented a compelling case for expecting oil             prices to remain within a range of $40-$50.

The message that comes through from Sharma's comments is that a move above recent highs is unlikely any time soon as the glut in the gasoline and distillates has put oil             market rebalancing at risk.

However, the resulting downside due glut in the gasoline.distillates and weak global demand growth forecasts should not be beyond $40, unless we have a major banking crisis in Europe.
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