I was long on UKOIL on a lower time frame, as there were early indications that it could be heading north. My trend following assessments then changed, as the picture unfolded. I decided to bail out just in time for no loss.
I don't care if it now jumps north. At this point in time - based on what I see - I now think the probability for the daily time frame is greater for the south.
If I see something different - like new compelling evidence - over the next few days I could change my mind again.
It was a good decision to close the long position.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, Certainly now in retrospect it looks like a good. This is the problem of confirmation bias. At the time I bailed out I couldn't 'know' it was a good decision. All I knew at the time was that the trade wasn't going well. I reviewed the situation which unfolded. It did not look as favourable as when I entered long. In fact it appeared dangerous.
Now I know some 'experts' out there say that 'one should stick with it' until the end. I'm afraid I truly believe that common sense has to prevail in trading. If new evidence unfolds which shows that the position has become dangerous, I get out. I couldn't care less about what I might have missed if it then went 'in my favour'. Why? Cuz there at thousands of other trading set ups out there to exploit.
My job - for the benefit of new traders, is not to win over a single trade. My real job is to control losses, assess probabilities, and make my winners run much longer than my losing trades. Simple - but not easy.
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, I agree with that. The basis for the long-term profit strategy that you described in the last few sentences.