JohnKeverich

The relationship between oil and Russian ruble

This chart shows the price of Brent oil             as measured in RUB. Russian blend is actually called Urals, but I couldn't find data for Urals, so I'm using Brent as a proxy. It strongly correlates with Urals, but a couple of dollars more expensive.

Russian budget for 2015 assumes USDRUB=61 & Urals oil=$50, which translates into 3050 RUB per barrel of Urals and roughly 3200 RUB per barrel of Brent. Below this level, and the Russian central bank will be pressured to weaken RUB. Much above 3200, and RUB becomes a short-term long.
The ruble fell over 3% in the morning. You think this finally makes RUB oversold? Not at all, as my chart shows this new exchange rate is barely enough to keep Russia solvent!
snapshot
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