UKOIL trend - unprofessional analysis

Dear all,

First of all, I would like to fix that I'm abolutelly not a professional analyst and this post objective is to help me to fully understand how to make a strong analysis.
So, as I am interested about the evolution of the Crude Oil             price, I did this analysis based on what I learnt at school and what I understood from different websites.

As you can see on the chart, there are three different color lines:

Green lines
The bottom bold line shows the product uptrend. It's, unless if I'm wrong, the lower support.
The middle dotted line is, as I understood, like an average trend.
About the top bold line, I understood that this line should be drawn based on the redundancy of the higher prices on the studied period.

Is this analysis right ?

Purple lines
These lines should be created depending upon the redundancy of higher prices or lower prices. It's the theoretical explanation on these lines and I'm not sure that mines are right ...

Yellow dotted lines
These dotted lines are, to my mind, the most interested things drawn on this chart. If this analysis is right, does it mean that on a short term, the Crude Oil             price should reach 72 USD ?


Could someone make a similar analysis on the same period in order to allow me to understand my mistakes ?

In addition, could some of you suggest me documents or strong websites to better understand the analysis keys ?

Thanks in advance for your help.