Many doubted that this time the Middle East situation would propel oil prices upward.
This skepticism largely stems from a lack of understanding of wave analysis. Knowing the current market phase—whether it's momentum or correction—puts you a few steps ahead of most traders.
Take a look at the Brent or Crude oil chart from December 16 to January 29. Here, we observe a classic impulse, which marks wave 1 of a new growth cycle.
Wave 2 paused, and wave 3 was triggered by events in Iran.
What's happening now?
If the rise from 58.72 to 70.58 is wave 1, the 50% pullback forming a "triangle" is wave 2.
The subsequent increase from 66.82 to 119.50 is wave 3, fulfilling the condition that wave 3 equals 4.236% of wave 1.
Wave 4 has already corrected by 61.8% from wave 3's peak. Interestingly, if you measure subwave 4 following the December 2021 to March 2022 growth, it also corrected by 61.8%, coinciding with the start of the special military operation in Ukraine.
Why do I compare it to this specific time? Because it's a period of intense volatility and also phase of an impulse.
While a 78.6% correction for wave 4 is possible, it's quite rare. Therefore, it's likely that $81.80 per barrel will act as a local low.
What can I say about Wave 4?
In wave theory, it's called a "wave of disappointment," a time of sudden emotional shifts. This is precisely what we experienced.
Moreover, Wave 4 typically offers a pause in momentum, often forming either a "triangle" or a "wedge" pattern.
This dual nature leads to two insights:
1) The oil price is likely to fall again. If a "triangle" forms at the exit, it won't go below $81.80. However, this isn't the only possibility. If a classic ABC zigzag develops, we could see a repetition of the "bottoms" or decline price until $80-81.
2) The oil market anticipates another strong upward surge, potentially reaching a new high above $119.50.
If identifying wave 4 is challenging, wait for it to conclude before resuming purchases. Nevertheless, targets near the $80-$82 range are favorable buying points for oil to rise above $119.50.
Don't miss this opportunity to earn over 40%!
This skepticism largely stems from a lack of understanding of wave analysis. Knowing the current market phase—whether it's momentum or correction—puts you a few steps ahead of most traders.
Take a look at the Brent or Crude oil chart from December 16 to January 29. Here, we observe a classic impulse, which marks wave 1 of a new growth cycle.
Wave 2 paused, and wave 3 was triggered by events in Iran.
What's happening now?
If the rise from 58.72 to 70.58 is wave 1, the 50% pullback forming a "triangle" is wave 2.
The subsequent increase from 66.82 to 119.50 is wave 3, fulfilling the condition that wave 3 equals 4.236% of wave 1.
Wave 4 has already corrected by 61.8% from wave 3's peak. Interestingly, if you measure subwave 4 following the December 2021 to March 2022 growth, it also corrected by 61.8%, coinciding with the start of the special military operation in Ukraine.
Why do I compare it to this specific time? Because it's a period of intense volatility and also phase of an impulse.
While a 78.6% correction for wave 4 is possible, it's quite rare. Therefore, it's likely that $81.80 per barrel will act as a local low.
What can I say about Wave 4?
In wave theory, it's called a "wave of disappointment," a time of sudden emotional shifts. This is precisely what we experienced.
Moreover, Wave 4 typically offers a pause in momentum, often forming either a "triangle" or a "wedge" pattern.
This dual nature leads to two insights:
1) The oil price is likely to fall again. If a "triangle" forms at the exit, it won't go below $81.80. However, this isn't the only possibility. If a classic ABC zigzag develops, we could see a repetition of the "bottoms" or decline price until $80-81.
2) The oil market anticipates another strong upward surge, potentially reaching a new high above $119.50.
If identifying wave 4 is challenging, wait for it to conclude before resuming purchases. Nevertheless, targets near the $80-$82 range are favorable buying points for oil to rise above $119.50.
Don't miss this opportunity to earn over 40%!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.