UKX has had a bullish run in a "Minute"-wave 5 (blue), since 2018-03-26! The question is, how far this rally could still go? -EW and Fib study: "Minuette"- level (red): UKX is in a wave 5 of an Extension5- pattern. This extension often equals 1,618 of the preceeding waves 1+3 (7846,3=TP1). A more conservative count would be 1,618 of wave 1 (7715,6=TP2). "SubMinuette"-level (grey): The target for a wave 3 would be 1,618 of wave 1, which is right below the first red resistance-line and would have the same level as TP2! After having finished wave 4, UKX is now in a final wave 5. This final wave could lead to 7846,3 and above (e.g. 8027,63, which would be 2,618 of "Minuette" wave 3)! IMPORTANT NOTE: If I feed my algos with daily data, the target on a "Minute"-level for this wave 5 equals exactly 8027,63.
Line studies: 1. UKX trades at the lower support line of a trend channel (blue), which has not been broken YET! 2. First red resistance line is about to be broken. 3. There are two further resistance lines, which are very important and need to be broken. This scares me a little bit!: Red= Dating back to 2007 Green: Dating back to 2013
STOCH: On a weekly and daily basis, the market is overbought!
Even as a daytrader, I would stay on the sidelines and wait. There is no reason to go long at the moment. There are more reasons for selling. If UKX breaks the blue trend channel during the coming week...
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See further details on 5m:
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Poss. retest of blue support-line!
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Update: Very strong start on a Monday! Is this, where exaggeration begins?
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Breaking TP1 on 3m:
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See below update on 30m
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UKX turned as forecasted, but, so far, does not show a clear picture. Fact is, that UKX left its trading channels (blue and red and dotted blue) and the downswing stopped/turned right below the preceeding wave 4 (grey), marked with a red arrow, which is often the case. The whole last leg itself, "Subminuette"-wave (grey), could be read as an impulse wave OR could have a corrective wave abc-pattern, because of that region, marked with a question mark! This region could also be an "a" and a "b".
In any case, this leg gives us a "Subminuette"- wave "1" or "a" and the coming wave should have an ABC corrective pattern. - TP for this correction is 0,618 at 7823,4. Note: This upswing could also stop at 0,382 (7776,8), but I don't believe atm...
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Update Remarks: - Big blue question mark: This could be a final "SuperCycle-wave III" ! (At least, my algos allow this count and there are not so many alternative counts possible!) - 1 or a (grey): This is a clear impulse- wave, which is part of a bigger pattern! If a "1", the following upswing should be a wave "2" (pessimistic view), followed by a lowe wave "3" (tp 7320). If a "a", the following upswing should be a wave "b" (optimistic view), Then the final wave c should stop at 7500! This level would clearly demonstrate, that the "SuperCycle-wave III" is not terminated!
BTW, wave "2 or b" has already made 0,500 of the preceeding wave, but I believe, that there could be a further retest of the red resistance line above, on Monday. Ok, next week will show...
My count has ftse in an extended wave 5 which may finish at 7849 where wave 5 = wave 3, think we will find out soon.
wolfah
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Hi @Geofftv1, thx for your comment! This is identical with my TP1! - So, we are both waiting for a reversal-pattern!
VishalShah9
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Great analysis as always. Thank you for sharing. This index is one of the most complex with GBP influence, Brexit uncertainty (both FTSE and GBP), S&P (Mainly Trump fuelled rally).
The wave structure is very complex to say the least.
But the insights you share is quite understandable - we have either seen
1) Wave 5 complete in Jan with the current double top marking Wave 2 and wave 3 decline to follow!
2) Current rally ending higher than previous high in Jan - That would be Wave 3 with 5 to follow - perhaps your current scenario
All indicators are such that the market is way to overbought at this level and therefore sidelines is preferred although those who can dare can take a short!
wolfah
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@VishalShah9, thx for your add. remarks. It's always a puzzle to find the end of a trend and I abs. share your thoughts! Tomorrow Monday, will show...