Geofftv1

FTSE - Update

TVC:UKX   UK 100 Index
FTSE blasted back upwards again following the US markets which seem to be on rocket fuel!

Still, I do believe that the current yo-yo action is corrective and although not finished yet is
getting closer to its termination point.

Looking at the EW structure a FLAT correction seems to be in place with the C wave taking the form
of an expanding diagonal. Wave 5 is always longer than wave 3 so my guess is that FTSE will
reach above 7490 before turning, probably past the round number 7500.

Other ideas and comments always welcome.

Good Luck
Hi Geofftv1

The_Unwind must be reading my mind I was going to comment on this post yesterday but didn't have time.

The structure you've illustrated is an Expanding Ending Diagonal Triangle. In "Elliott Wave Principle" chapter one, the authors illustrate the only example of an Ending Diagonal Triangle with diverging trendlines that they had ever discovered. It is an hourly DJIA chart and the authors note that the example violated an Elliott wave rule. They also noted the entire formation was larger than normal and that another interpretation was possible.

I suppose the authors; Frost and Prechter illustrated this pattern as a theoretical possibility. Something that could exist.

Years ago when I first started counting Elliott waves I would come across what looked like Expanding Ending Diagonal Triangles. Everyone of the supposed patterns failed. I later realized that if I came across what looked like an Expanding EDT I would treat it as a sign the primary trend would continue. This turned out to be the correct procedure, instead of expecting a reversal I expected the primary trend to continue. This helped improve my market analysis.

I recommend you keep a journal listing your expectations of possible wave counts then later see if those expectations were validated. You have a record of wave counts you've posted on this site. Go back and look at those posts and see what you got right and what was wrong. This will be a great help to improve your wave counting.

By the way about a year ago I discover a possible Expanding EDT, it was SPX on the intraday scale and it did work out! I found this after years of searching, Expanding EDT's exist - they are EXTREMELY RARE.

Today, 11/28/19 I posted a daily FTSE chart illustrating one of two bullish wave counts that could lead to the FTSE 100 making a new all time high in the next several weeks.

Mark
Reply
Geofftv1 markrivest
@markrivest, Thanks for the comments and education. Note that I have also commented that this suggested structure may be incorrect but is an idea only as this is after all an ideas forum.

None of us will be able to finally label the structure until after it is complete and my analysis takes into account the previous longer term structure and the current situation in the UK, brexit and a strong pound vs the dollar.

I still believe that FTSE will fall heavily soon and not make new ATH levels as you predict, I hope I am right but with EW analysis one always gets surprises, look at the US market analysis by the experts at EWI who keep getting it wrong.
Reply
markrivest Geofftv1
@Geofftv1,

Hi
I don't subscribe to EWI and have no idea what they are saying about any market. If they keep getting it wrong why should you care about what they are saying? Why are you reading anything they publish?
You don't need them.

No one has magical powers and there are no "experts" in this business only traders/analysts that have more knowledge than others.

The way to improve in any activity is to learn from your mistakes
Keep learning and don't give up.

Mark
Reply
Geofftv1 markrivest
@markrivest, As a retired engineer I do like puzzles, patterns and natural cycles which is why I am using EW theory in my trading.
I do subscribe to EWI mainly for the education articles and Bob Prechters Theory articles which I find interesting. I also follow
other theories such as Wykoff etc. But you are right, the way to improve is to learn from your mistakes before you go bust! and to
follow your own methods and disciplines. I cetainly wont be giving up!
Reply
Note the latest "Expanding Triangle" formation on your chart.
Triangle defined with higher highs, but also lower lows,
all the while chopping back and forth for direction.
The Expanding Triangle is often seen at the final bearish termination peak in the pattern
before the pattern ultimately breaks completely down,
,,,, and never returns to that price area again.
Reply
Geofftv1 The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, Thanks for the note. However I have labelled the formation as an expanding diagonal
as I cannot see what else it can be?
Reply
The_Unwind Geofftv1
@Geofftv1,

Geoff.
Another writeron the site Mark Rivest could possibly offer confirmation of the Elliot Wave pattern you have interpreted here.
The Technical Analysis interpretation by the noted authorThomas Bulkowsi,
shows the pattern to have the footprints of an "expanding triangle, as previously noted.
Reply
Geofftv1 The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, I have Bulkowski's book, ' Chart Patterns' and am familiar with his megaphone or expanding triangle
interpretation. He cited this in his Aug 1st blog for SPX as wave D having completed at 3000, this is now proved incorrect.
In my interpretation wave 4 low does not go lower than wave 2 low so I have trouble seeing how this can be an expanding
triangle? I do accept though that the whole corrective structure may turn out to be something else than a flat. time will tell!

PS - I am watching SPX like a hawk and my own EW structure has SPX just completing wave 3 of an ending diagonal, if correct
a fall below 3028 will occur soon. Lets see!!
Reply
The_Unwind Geofftv1
@Geofftv1,

Thank you for your eagle eyes.
I maybe corrected on the "expanding triangle" interpretation, with your reference to Bukowski's book in hand.
I will go back, and re-read the definition again, to familiarize myself with the pattern.
Continue to watch the S+P 3028 closely...
I have the same support number,3028, on the institutional 4 hour SPX chart.
Reply
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