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GammaLab
Jun 29, 2022 6:41 PM

Dominos starting to fall.. 

Description

..in Germany. Uniper collapses after market. Company is in talks with the German government about liquidity measures.
Comments
kurtsmock
Is there something interesting about this company in particular, except that Russia has decided to choke them out?
GammaLab
@kurtsmock, Uniper is a subsidiary of Fortum the third largest power generator in Europe/Russia. It is a systemic company. I think this could trigger the third and final stage of Germany's emergency plan, which would allow energy firms to pass on price increases. This would be very bad for Lagarde. Inflation would explode higher.
kurtsmock
@GammaLab, In that event Germany would be backstopping the energy market correct?
That would be bad for inflation indeed.
GammaLab
@kurtsmock, Germany will backstop the energy market sooner or later, this inevitable and they already have announced it. Question is how and if they will allow energy companies to rise prices for end consumers. Right now, this is not allowed and this is hurting energy companies big time.
kurtsmock
@GammaLab, So price fixing and backstop financing... what a brilliant combo. What could go wrong?
GammaLab
@kurtsmock, just my personal opinion: If Russia stops gas in July it is game over for the Eurozone and this will certainly spillover to the US. I am surprised how little attention is being paid to a very possible Lehman moment.
superiorJaguar24882
@GammaLab, keep me informed if you can. you called the Uniper thing for sure. seeing articles about them releasing reserves and needing support. also it / stock went down further.
TradeandGrow
This move is related to the gas problems, also hitted RWE and EOAN. As long the gas problems are not solved, this stocks are shorts. But this can change rapidly.
GammaLab
@TradeandGrow, yes it can, very fluid situation of course. Q: Will Russia restart NS1 flows after maintenance work?
TradeandGrow
@GammaLab, I dought it. There is a bigger change incoming - LNG terminals, with those Germany will be supplied from other Gas companies over sea instead of pipelines. This will relax the situation, but this takes about 12 months from now. Also consider the state aid Uniper will get now. Sooner or later a capital increasement will take place, the share will be more dilluted and Uniper will have the same destiny as Commerzbank or Lufthansa. Then we have to wait for the LNG projects are finished.
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